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Model-Agnostic Covariate-Assisted Inference on Partially Identified Causal Effects

Wenlong Ji, Lihua Lei, Asher Spector

arXiv 12 Oct 2023 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2310.08115 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Many causal estimands are only partially identifiable since they depend on the unobservable joint distribution between potential outcomes. Stratification on pretreatment covariates can yield sharper bounds; however, unless the covariates are discrete with relatively small support, this approach typically requires binning covariates or estimating the conditional distributions of the potential outcomes given the covariates. Binning can result in substantial efficiency loss and become challenging to implement, even with a moderate number of covariates. Estimating conditional distributions, on the other hand, may yield invalid inference if the distributions are inaccurately estimated, such as when a misspecified model is used or when the covariates are high-dimensional. In this paper, we propose a unified and model-agnostic inferential approach for a wide class of partially identified estimands. Our method, based on duality theory for optimal transport problems, has four key properties. First, in randomized experiments, our approach can wrap around any estimates of the conditional distributions and provide uniformly valid inference, even if the initial estimates are arbitrarily inaccurate. A simple extension of our method to observational studies is doubly robust in the usual sense. Second, if nuisance parameters are estimated at semiparametric rates, our estimator is asymptotically unbiased for the sharp partial identification bound. Third, we can apply the multiplier bootstrap to select covariates and models without sacrificing validity, even if the true model is not selected. Finally, our method is computationally efficient. Overall, in three empirical applications, our method consistently reduces the width of estimated identified sets and confidence intervals without making additional structural assumptions.

Citation extraction

106
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Lee, D. S (2009) Training, wages, and sample selection: Estimating sharp bounds on treatment effects1.00063100%
2Imbens, G. and Manski, C (2004) Confidence intervals for partially identified parameters0.92843100%
3Stoye, J (2009) More on confidence intervals for partially identified parameters0.92843100%
4Semenova, V (2023) Adaptive estimation of intersection bounds: a classification approach0.87482100%
5Semenova, V (2021) Generalized lee bounds0.81142100%
6Chernozhukov, V., Chetverikov, D., and Kato, K (2018) Inference on Causal and Structural Parameters using Many Moment Inequalities0.7374350%
7Jun, S. J. and Lee, S (2023) Identifying the effect of persuasion0.73732100%
8Gerber, A. S., Karlan, D., and Bergan, D (2009) Does the media matter? a field experiment measuring the effect of newspapers on voting behavior and political opinions0.64441100%
9Chernozhukov, V., Chetverikov, D., and Kato, K (2013) Gaussian approximations and multiplier bootstrap for maxima of sums of high-dimensional random vectors0.64422100%
10Fang, Z., Santos, A., Shaikh, A. M., and Torgovitsky, A (2023) Inference for large-scale linear systems with known coefficients0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 106 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Adaptive Estimation of Aggregated Values of Conditional Linear Programs1.00073
2Predicting the Distribution of Treatment Effects via Covariate-Adjustment, with an Application to Microcredit0.860114
3Causal Interpretation of Regressions With Ranks0.84333
4Partial Identification in Moment Models with Incomplete Data–-A Conditional Optimal Transport Approach0.84333
5An econometrician's guide to optimal transport0.69351
6Partial identification via conditional linear programs: estimation and policy learning0.64422
7Estimating Functionals of the Joint Distribution of Potential Outcomes with Optimal Transport0.51121
8On the Asymptotic Properties of Debiased Machine Learning Estimators0.51121
9Debiased Machine Learning of Aggregated Intersection Bounds and Other Causal Parameters0.40511
10Assessing Heterogeneity of Treatment Effects0.40511