arXiv 6 Dec 2018 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Political Economy (2023) · 6 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:1812.02276 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
This paper examines a commonly used measure of persuasion whose precise interpretation has been obscure in the literature. By using the potential outcome framework, we define the causal persuasion rate by a proper conditional probability of taking the action of interest with a persuasive message conditional on not taking the action without the message. We then formally study identification under empirically relevant data scenarios and show that the commonly adopted measure generally does not estimate, but often overstates, the causal rate of persuasion. We discuss several new parameters of interest and provide practical methods for causal inference.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heckman and Vytlacil (2005) Structural Equations, Treatment Effects, and Econometric Policy Evaluation | 0.909 | 8 | 3 | 75% |
| 2 | DellaVigna and Gentzkow (2010) Persuasion: empirical evidence | 0.897 | 18 | 7 | 72% |
| 3 | DellaVigna, Enikolopov, Mironova, Petrova, and Zhuravskaya (2014) Cross-Border Media and Nationalism: Evidence from Serbian Radio in Croatia | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Gentzkow, Shapiro, and Sinkinson (2011) The effect of newspaper entry and exit on electoral politics | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 5 | Enikolopov, Petrova, and Zhuravskaya (2011) Media and Political Persuasion: Evidence from Russia | 0.737 | 4 | 3 | 50% |
| 6 | Chen and Yang (2019) The Impact of Media Censorship: 1984 or Brave New World? | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Martin and Yurukoglu (2017) Bias in Cable News: Persuasion and Polarization | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | DellaVigna and Kaplan (2007) The Fox News effect: Media bias and voting | 0.693 | 6 | 4 | 33% |
| 9 | Gerber, Karlan, and Bergan (2009) Does the media matter? A field experiment measuring the effect of newspapers on voting behavior and political opinions | 0.659 | 7 | 3 | 29% |
| 10 | Stoye (2009) More on Confidence Regions for Partially Identified Parameters | 0.644 | 5 | 2 | 40% |
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arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.