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Covariate-Adjusted Deep Causal Learning for Heterogeneous Panel Data Models

Guanhao Zhou, Yuefeng Han, Xiufan Yu

arXiv 26 May 2025 · Statistics — Machine Learning

arXiv:2505.20536 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper studies the task of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects in causal panel data models, in the presence of covariate effects. We propose a novel Covariate-Adjusted Deep Causal Learning (CoDEAL) for panel data models, that employs flexible model structures and powerful neural network architectures to cohesively deal with the underlying heterogeneity and nonlinearity of both panel units and covariate effects. The proposed CoDEAL integrates nonlinear covariate effect components (parameterized by a feed-forward neural network) with nonlinear factor structures (modeled by a multi-output autoencoder) to form a heterogeneous causal panel model. The nonlinear covariate component offers a flexible framework for capturing the complex influences of covariates on outcomes. The nonlinear factor analysis enables CoDEAL to effectively capture both cross-sectional and temporal dependencies inherent in the data panel. This latent structural information is subsequently integrated into a customized matrix completion algorithm, thereby facilitating more accurate imputation of missing counterfactual outcomes. Moreover, the use of a multi-output autoencoder explicitly accounts for heterogeneity across units and enhances the model interpretability of the latent factors. We establish theoretical guarantees on the convergence of the estimated counterfactuals, and demonstrate the compelling performance of the proposed method using extensive simulation studies and a real data application.

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52
references
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in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Susan Athey, Mohsen Bayati, Nikolay Doudchenko, Guido Imbens, and Kh… (2021) Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models1.00083100%
2Jushan Bai and Serena Ng (2021) Matrix completion, counterfactuals, and factor analysis of missing data1.00053100%
3Anish Agarwal, Munther Dahleh, Devavrat Shah, and Dennis Shen (2023) Causal matrix completion0.87452100%
4Yuling Yan and Martin J Wainwright (2024) Entrywise inference for missing panel data: A simple and instance-optimal approach0.87452100%
5Ruoxuan Xiong and Markus Pelger (2023) Large dimensional latent factor modeling with missing observations and applications to causal inference0.81142100%
6Yiqing Xu (2017) Generalized synthetic control method: Causal inference with interactive fixed effects models0.81142100%
7Susan Athey and Guido W Imbens (2022) Design-based analysis in difference-in-differences settings with staggered adoption0.73732100%
8Jushan Bai (2003) Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions0.73732100%
9Kosuke Imai and In Song Kim (2021) On the use of two-way fixed effects regression models for causal inference with panel data0.73732100%
10Alberto Abadie (2021) Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 52 scored citations.