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State-Varying Factor Models of Large Dimensions

Markus Pelger, Ruoxuan Xiong

arXiv 6 Jul 2018 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Business and Economic Statistics (2018) · 7 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1807.02248 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper develops an inferential theory for state-varying factor models of large dimensions. Unlike constant factor models, loadings are general functions of some recurrent state process. We develop an estimator for the latent factors and state-varying loadings under a large cross-section and time dimension. Our estimator combines nonparametric methods with principal component analysis. We derive the rate of convergence and limiting normal distribution for the factors, loadings and common components. In addition, we develop a statistical test for a change in the factor structure in different states. We apply the estimator to U.S. Treasury yields and S&P500 stock returns. The systematic factor structure in treasury yields differs in times of booms and recessions as well as in periods of high market volatility. State-varying factors based on the VIX capture significantly more variation and pricing information in individual stocks than constant factor models.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Bai (2003) Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions1.000187100%
2Bai and Ng (2002) Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models1.000158100%
3Su and Wang (2017) On time-varying factor models: Estimation and testing1.000147100%
4Bai, Han, and Shi (2020) Estimation and inference of change points in high-dimensional factor models1.00053100%
5Lettau and Pelger (2020) Factors that Fit the Time-Series and Cross-Section of Stock Returns1.00053100%
6Pelger (2020) Understanding Systematic Risk: A High-Frequency Approach self0.92843100%
7Baltagi, Kao, and Wang (2020) Estimating and testing high dimensional factor models with multiple structural changes0.87462100%
8Park, Mammen, Härdle, and Borak (2009) Time Series Modelling With Semiparametric Factor Dynamics0.81142100%
9Cheng, Liao, and Schorfheide (2016) Shrinkage estimation of high-dimensional factor models with structural instabilities0.73732100%
10Fan, Liao, and Mincheva (2013) Large covariance estimation by thresholding principal orthogonal complements0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 50 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1A Unified Framework for Estimation of High-dimensional Conditional Factor Models0.92843
2Large Dimensional Latent Factor Modeling with Missing Observations and Applications to Causal Inference0.64422
3Modelling Large Dimensional Datasets with Markov Switching Factor Models0.64422
4Disentangling Structural Breaks in Factor Models for Macroeconomic Data0.64422
5Real-time Inflation Forecasting Using Non-linear Dimension Reduction Techniques0.40511
62101.068050.40511
7Semiparametric Conditional Factor Models in Asset Pricing0.40511
8A penalized two-pass regression to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia0.40511
9Principal Component Analysis .3cm for High-Dimensional Approximate Factor Models in Time Series: Assumptions, Asymptotic Theory, and Identification0.40511
10A Simple Method for Predicting Covariance Matrices of Financial Returns0.40511