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Modelling Large Dimensional Datasets with Markov Switching Factor Models

Matteo Barigozzi, Daniele Massacci

arXiv 18 Oct 2022 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2024) · 8 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2210.09828 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We study a novel large dimensional approximate factor model with regime changes in the loadings driven by a latent first order Markov process. By exploiting the equivalent linear representation of the model, we first recover the latent factors by means of Principal Component Analysis. We then cast the model in state-space form, and we estimate loadings and transition probabilities through an EM algorithm based on a modified version of the Baum-Lindgren-Hamilton-Kim filter and smoother that makes use of the factors previously estimated. Our approach is appealing as it provides closed form expressions for all estimators. More importantly, it does not require knowledge of the true number of factors. We derive the theoretical properties of the proposed estimation procedure, and we show their good finite sample performance through a comprehensive set of Monte Carlo experiments. The empirical usefulness of our approach is illustrated through three applications to large U.S. datasets of stock returns, macroeconomic variables, and inflation indexes.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Urga, G. and F. Wang (2024) Estimation and inference for high dimensional factor model with regime switching1.000124100%
2Diebold, F. X. and G. D. Rudebusch (1996) Measuring business cycles: A modern perspective1.00065100%
3Bai, J. and S. Ng (2002) Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models1.00064100%
4Liu, X. and R. Chen (2016) Regime-switching factor models for high-dimensional time series1.00054100%
5Massacci, D (2017) Least squares estimation of large dimensional threshold factor models self0.9416683%
6Bai, J (2003) Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions0.92810580%
7Hamilton, J. D (1989) A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle0.9285480%
8Barigozzi, M., H. Cho, and P. Fryzlewicz (2018) Simultaneous multiple change-point and factor analysis for high-dimensional time series self0.92843100%
9Massacci, D (2023) Testing for regime changes in portfolios with a large number of assets: A robust approach to factor heteroskedasticity self0.92843100%
10Ahn, S. C. and A. R. Horenstein (2013) Eigenvalue ratio test for the number of factors0.92843100%

Showing the top 10 of 80 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Principal Component Analysis .3cm for High-Dimensional Approximate Factor Models in Time Series: Assumptions, Asymptotic Theory, and Identification0.64422
2Regime-Switching Models for Disaggregated Data0.40511