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A penalized two-pass regression to predict stock returns with time-varying risk premia

Gaetan Bakalli, Stéphane Guerrier, Olivier Scaillet

arXiv 1 Aug 2022 · Econometrics · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2023) · 7 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2208.00972 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We develop a penalized two-pass regression with time-varying factor loadings. The penalization in the first pass enforces sparsity for the time-variation drivers while also maintaining compatibility with the no-arbitrage restrictions by regularizing appropriate groups of coefficients. The second pass delivers risk premia estimates to predict equity excess returns. Our Monte Carlo results and our empirical results on a large cross-sectional data set of US individual stocks show that penalization without grouping can yield to nearly all estimated time-varying models violating the no-arbitrage restrictions. Moreover, our results demonstrate that the proposed method reduces the prediction errors compared to a penalized approach without appropriate grouping or a time-invariant factor model.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Chaieb, I., Langlois, H., and Scaillet, O (2021) Factors and risk premia in individual international stock returns self1.00073100%
2Fama, E. F. and French, K. R (2015) A five-factor asset pricing model1.00054100%
3Gagliardini, P., Ossola, E., and Scaillet, O (2016) Time-varying risk premium in large cross-sectional equity data sets self0.95624588%
4Gagliardini, P., Ossola, E., and Scaillet, O (2020) Estimation of large dimensional conditional factor models in finance self0.92843100%
5Percival, D (2012) Theoretical properties of the overlapping groups lasso0.89911373%
6Jacob, L., Obozinski, G., and Vert, J.-P (2009) Group lasso with overlap and graph lasso0.87452100%
7Freyberger, J., Neuhierl, A., and Weber, M (2020) Dissecting characteristics nonparametrically0.81142100%
8Yuan, M. and Lin, Y (2006) Model selection and estimation in regression with grouped variables0.73732100%
9Zou, H (2006) The adaptive lasso and its oracle properties0.73732100%
10Carhart, M. M (1997) On persistence in mutual fund performance0.64422100%

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arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Overparametrized models with posterior drift0.40511