arXiv 12 Jul 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2607.10519 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
A large literature in econometrics proposes decision rules with optimality guarantees based on ex ante criteria, such as minimax regret. We develop a framework for analyzing the dynamic consistency of such rules and show that, in many empirically relevant settings, the researcher may wish to deviate from the interim prescription of ex ante optimal rules after observing the data realization. To address this problem, we propose and axiomatize two classes of optimality criteria that yield dynamically consistent decision rules.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manski, Charles F (2004) Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations | 1.000 | 8 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Lim, Cheaheon (2026) Partially Identified Ambiguity self | 1.000 | 7 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Berger, James O (1985) Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis | 1.000 | 6 | 4 | 100% |
| 4 | Manski, Charles F (2021) Econometrics for decision making: Building foundations sketched by Haavelmo and Wald | 1.000 | 6 | 3 | 100% |
| 5 | Yata, Kohei (2021) Optimal decision rules under partial identification | 1.000 | 6 | 3 | 100% |
| 6 | Stoye, Jörg (2012) New perspectives on statistical decisions under ambiguity | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 7 | Stoye, Jörg (2009) Minimax regret treatment choice with finite samples | 0.946 | 13 | 6 | 85% |
| 8 | Chernozhukov, Victor and Lee, Sokbae and Rosen, Adam M and Sun, Liyang (2025) Policy learning with confidence | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 9 | Larry G. Epstein and Martin Schneider (2003) Recursive multiple-priors | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 10 | Stoye, Jörg (2011) Axioms for minimax regret choice correspondences | 0.836 | 12 | 3 | 58% |
Showing the top 10 of 40 scored citations.