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Dynamically Consistent Statistical Decisions

Cheaheon Lim, Yechan Park

arXiv 12 Jul 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2607.10519 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

A large literature in econometrics proposes decision rules with optimality guarantees based on ex ante criteria, such as minimax regret. We develop a framework for analyzing the dynamic consistency of such rules and show that, in many empirically relevant settings, the researcher may wish to deviate from the interim prescription of ex ante optimal rules after observing the data realization. To address this problem, we propose and axiomatize two classes of optimality criteria that yield dynamically consistent decision rules.

Citation extraction

40
references
114
in-text mentions
40
distinct cited
1
self-citations
12,741
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 71% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Manski, Charles F (2004) Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations1.00083100%
2Lim, Cheaheon (2026) Partially Identified Ambiguity self1.00073100%
3Berger, James O (1985) Statistical decision theory and Bayesian analysis1.00064100%
4Manski, Charles F (2021) Econometrics for decision making: Building foundations sketched by Haavelmo and Wald1.00063100%
5Yata, Kohei (2021) Optimal decision rules under partial identification1.00063100%
6Stoye, Jörg (2012) New perspectives on statistical decisions under ambiguity1.00053100%
7Stoye, Jörg (2009) Minimax regret treatment choice with finite samples0.94613685%
8Chernozhukov, Victor and Lee, Sokbae and Rosen, Adam M and Sun, Liyang (2025) Policy learning with confidence0.84333100%
9Larry G. Epstein and Martin Schneider (2003) Recursive multiple-priors0.84333100%
10Stoye, Jörg (2011) Axioms for minimax regret choice correspondences0.83612358%

Showing the top 10 of 40 scored citations.