arXiv 9 Nov 2021 · Econometrics · 3 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2111.04926 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
I consider a class of statistical decision problems in which the policymaker must decide between two policies to maximize social welfare (e.g., the population mean of an outcome) based on a finite sample. The framework introduced in this paper allows for various types of restrictions on the structural parameter (e.g., the smoothness of a conditional mean potential outcome function) and accommodates settings with partial identification of social welfare. As the main theoretical result, I derive a finite-sample optimal decision rule under the minimax regret criterion. This rule has a simple form, yet achieves optimality among all decision rules; no ad hoc restrictions are imposed on the class of decision rules. I apply my results to the problem of whether to change an eligibility cutoff in a regression discontinuity setup, and illustrate them in an empirical application to a school construction program in Burkina Faso.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ishihara, T. and Kitagawa, T (2024) Evidence Aggregation for Treatment Choice | 1.000 | 14 | 5 | 100% |
| 2 | Hirano, K. and Porter, J. R (2009) Asymptotics for Statistical Treatment Rules | 1.000 | 7 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | –- (2012) Minimax Regret Treatment Choice with Covariates or with Limited Validity of Experiments | 0.984 | 21 | 4 | 95% |
| 4 | Donoho, D. L (1994) Statistical Estimation and Optimal Recovery | 0.952 | 44 | 7 | 86% |
| 5 | Low, M. G (1995) Bias-Variance Tradeoffs in Functional Estimation Problems | 0.946 | 13 | 4 | 85% |
| 6 | Stoye, J (2009) Minimax Regret Treatment Choice with Finite Samples | 0.941 | 6 | 3 | 83% |
| 7 | Tetenov, A (2012) Statistical Treatment Choice Based on Asymmetric Minimax Regret Criteria | 0.928 | 5 | 4 | 80% |
| 8 | Imbens, G. and Wager, S (2019) Optimized Regression Discontinuity Designs | 0.928 | 5 | 3 | 80% |
| 9 | Kazianga, H., Levy, D., Linden, L. L. and Sloan, M (2013) Girl-Friendly | 0.874 | 12 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | –- (2004) Statistical Treatment Rules for Heterogeneous Populations | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
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