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Statistical Decisions and Partial Identification: With Application to Boundary Discontinuity Design

Chen Qiu, Jörg Stoye

arXiv 25 Jan 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2601.17648 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We are delighted to respond to the excellent surveys by Cattaneo et al. (2026) and Hirano (2026). Our discussion will attempt two things: first, we show how statistical decision theory can be applied to situations with partial identification; second, we connect the surveys' themes by applying these insights to an imagined policy experiment in one of Cattaneo et al.'s (2025) applications. To do so, we lay out a stylized scenario of statistical decision making under partial identification and, drawing on our own and others' earlier work, provide a complete solution for that scenario. We then apply these results to a hypothetical reduction (modelled on actual policies) in eligibility for educational subsidies. We will see that something of interest can be said, but also that bringing the theory to the application involves some leaps of faith and leaves some questions open. This leads to the final section, where we discuss what we see as the main open challenges in statistical decision theory under partial identification.

Citation extraction

33
references
82
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Cattaneo, Matias D. and Titiunik, Roc/'io and Yu, Ruiqi (2025) Causal Treatment Effect Aggregation in Boundary Discontinuity Designs0.874132100%
2Kohei Yata (2021) Optimal Decision Rules Under Partial Identification0.87462100%
3Montiel Olea, José Luis and Qiu, Chen and Stoye, Jörg (2026) Decision Theory for Treatment Choice Problems with Partial Identification self0.87452100%
4Aradillas Fernández, Andrés and Blanchet, José and Montiel Olea, Jos… (2025) $ $-Minimax Solutions of Statistical Decision Problems self0.81142100%
5Hirano, Keisuke (2026) Wald's Statistical Decision Theory for Policy Analysis and Adaptive Experiments0.73732100%
6Stoye, Jörg (2012) Minimax regret treatment choice with covariates or with limited validity of experiments self0.73732100%
7Londoño-Vélez, Juliana and Rodríguez, Catherine and Sánchez, Fabio (2020) Upstream and Downstream Impacts of College Merit-Based Financial Aid for Low-Income Students: Ser Pilo Paga in Colombia0.69391100%
8Guggenberger, Patrik and Huang, Jiaqi (2025) On the numerical approximation of minimax regret rules via fictitious play0.64441100%
9Charles F. Manski (2004) Statistical treatment rules for heterogeneous populations0.64422100%
10Hirano, Keisuke and Porter, Jack R (2009) Asymptotics for statistical treatment rules0.51121100%

Showing the top 10 of 33 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Boundary Discontinuity Designs: Theory and Practice0.40511