Marco Piccininni, Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen, Mats J. Stensrud
arXiv 17 Jul 2025 · Statistics — Methodology
arXiv:2507.12891 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
We address an ambiguity in identification strategies using difference-in-differences, which are widely applied in empirical research, particularly in economics. The assumption commonly referred to as the "no-anticipation assumption" states that treatment has no effect on outcomes before its implementation. However, because standard causal models rely on a temporal structure in which causes precede effects, such an assumption seems to be inherently satisfied. This raises the question of whether the assumption is repeatedly stated out of redundancy or because the formal statements fail to capture the intended subject-matter interpretation. We argue that confusion surrounding the no-anticipation assumption arises from ambiguity in the intervention considered and that current formulations of the assumption are ambiguous. Therefore, new definitions and identification results are proposed.
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| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
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| 1 | Jonathan Roth, Pedro H.C. Sant’Anna, Alyssa Bilinski, and John Poe (2023) What’s trending in difference-in-differences? a synthesis of the recent econometrics literature | 1.000 | 19 | 5 | 100% |
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| 4 | Thomas S. Richardson and James M. Robins (2013) Single world intervention graphs (SWIGs): A unification of the counterfactual and graphical approaches to causality | 1.000 | 7 | 4 | 100% |
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| 7 | Susan Athey and Guido W. Imbens (2022) Design-based analysis in difference-in-differences settings with staggered adoption | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 8 | James Robins (1986) A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with a sustained exposure period—application to control of the healthy w… | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 9 | Miguel A. Hernán and James M. Robins (2020) Causal Inference: What If | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Introduction to DiD with multiple time periods (2025) https://bcallaway11.github.io/did/articles/multi-period-did.html | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
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| 1 | On a Debiased and Semiparametric Efficient Changes-in-Changes Estimator | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | A Joint Analysis of Sensitivity to Anticipation and Parallel Trends Violations | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |