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Trends and biases in the social cost of carbon

Richard S. J. Tol

arXiv 12 Sep 2024 · Econometrics · publishedAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciences (2025) · 8 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2409.08158 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

An updated and extended meta-analysis confirms that the central estimate of the social cost of carbon is around $200/tC with a large, right-skewed uncertainty and trending up. The pure rate of time preference and the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are key assumptions, the total impact of 2.5K warming less so. The social cost of carbon is much higher if climate change is assumed to affect economic growth rather than the level of output and welfare. The literature is dominated by a relatively small network of authors, based in a few countries. Publication and citation bias have pushed the social cost of carbon up.

Citation extraction

28
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34
in-text mentions
28
distinct cited
6
self-citations
4,013
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Tol, Richard S. J (2023) Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time self0.81142100%
2Tol, Richard S. J (2005) The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties self0.64422100%
3Havránek, Tomáš, Zuzana Irsova, Karel Janda, and David Zilberman (2015) Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon0.51121100%
4Tol, Richard S. J (2018) The economic impacts of climate change self0.51121100%
5Anthoff, David, and Richard S. J. Tol (2022) Testing the dismal theorem0.40511100%
6Barrage, Lint, and William D. Nordhaus (2023) Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model0.40511100%
7Burke, Marshall, Solomon M. Hsiang, and Edward Miguel (2015) Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production0.40511100%
8Dell, Melissa, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken (2012) Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century0.40511100%
9Dong, Jinchi, Richard S. J. Tol, and Fangzhi Wang (2024) Towards a social cost of carbon with national characteristics self0.40511100%
10Greenstone, M., E. Kopits, and A. Wolverton (2013) Developing a social cost of carbon for us regulatory analysis: A methodology and interpretation0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 28 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Meta-emulation: An application to the social cost of carbon0.40511
2Conceptual winsorizing: An application to the social cost of carbon0.40511