arXiv 12 Sep 2024 · Econometrics · publishedAnnals of the New York Academy of Sciences (2025) · 8 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2409.08158 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
An updated and extended meta-analysis confirms that the central estimate of the social cost of carbon is around $200/tC with a large, right-skewed uncertainty and trending up. The pure rate of time preference and the inverse of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are key assumptions, the total impact of 2.5K warming less so. The social cost of carbon is much higher if climate change is assumed to affect economic growth rather than the level of output and welfare. The literature is dominated by a relatively small network of authors, based in a few countries. Publication and citation bias have pushed the social cost of carbon up.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tol, Richard S. J (2023) Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time self | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | Tol, Richard S. J (2005) The marginal damage costs of carbon dioxide emissions: an assessment of the uncertainties self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Havránek, Tomáš, Zuzana Irsova, Karel Janda, and David Zilberman (2015) Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Tol, Richard S. J (2018) The economic impacts of climate change self | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Anthoff, David, and Richard S. J. Tol (2022) Testing the dismal theorem | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Barrage, Lint, and William D. Nordhaus (2023) Policies, projections, and the social cost of carbon: Results from the DICE-2023 model | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Burke, Marshall, Solomon M. Hsiang, and Edward Miguel (2015) Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Dell, Melissa, Benjamin F. Jones, and Benjamin A. Olken (2012) Temperature shocks and economic growth: Evidence from the last half century | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Dong, Jinchi, Richard S. J. Tol, and Fangzhi Wang (2024) Towards a social cost of carbon with national characteristics self | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Greenstone, M., E. Kopits, and A. Wolverton (2013) Developing a social cost of carbon for us regulatory analysis: A methodology and interpretation | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 28 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Meta-emulation: An application to the social cost of carbon | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Conceptual winsorizing: An application to the social cost of carbon | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |