arXiv 10 Aug 2025 · Econometrics
arXiv:2508.07384 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
There are many published estimates of the social cost of carbon. Some are clear outliers, the result of poorly constrained models. Percentile winsorizing is an option, but I here propose conceptual winsorizing: The social cost of carbon is either a willingness to pay, which cannot exceed the ability to pay, or a proposed carbon tax, which cannot raise more revenue than all other taxes combined. Conceptual winsorizing successfully removes high outliers. It slackens as economies decarbonize, slowly without climate policy, faster with.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tol, R. S. J (2023) Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time self | 0.928 | 4 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | van den Bergh, J. C. J. M. & Botzen, W. J. W (2014) A lower bound to the social cost of CO2 emissions | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 3 | Fankhauser, S. & Tol, D. W., Richard S. J.and Pearce (1997) The aggregation of climate change damages: a welfare theoretic approach | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | Harstad, B (2007) Harmonization and side payments in political cooperation | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | Havránek, T., Irsova, Z., Janda, K. & Zilberman, D (2015) Selective reporting and the social cost of carbon | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Hobbes, T Leviathan or The Matter, Forme and Power of a Commonwealth Ecclesiasticall and Civil | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Kelleher, J. P (2025) The Social Cost of Carbon: Ethics and the Limits of Climate Change Economics | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Moore, F. C. et al (2024) Synthesis of evidence yields high social cost of carbon due to structural model variation and uncertainties | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | van der Ploeg, F. & Withagen, C (2014) Growth, Renewables, And The Optimal Carbon Tax | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Riahi, K. et al (2016) The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 20 scored citations.