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Identification and Inference for Synthetic Controls with Confounding

Guido W. Imbens, Davide Viviano

arXiv 1 Dec 2023 · Econometrics · 2 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2312.00955 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper studies inference on treatment effects in panel data settings with unobserved confounding. We model outcome variables through a factor model with random factors and loadings. Such factors and loadings may act as unobserved confounders: when the treatment is implemented depends on time-varying factors, and who receives the treatment depends on unit-level confounders. We study the identification of treatment effects and illustrate the presence of a trade-off between time and unit-level confounding. We provide asymptotic results for inference for several Synthetic Control estimators and show that different sources of randomness should be considered for inference, depending on the nature of confounding. We conclude with a comparison of Synthetic Control estimators with alternatives for factor models.

Citation extraction

39
references
80
in-text mentions
39
distinct cited
3
self-citations
10,925
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Arkhangelsky, D., S. Athey, D. A. Hirshberg, G. W. Imbens, and S. Wa… (2021) Synthetic difference-in-differences self1.000145100%
2Athey, S., M. Bayati, N. Doudchenko, G. Imbens, and K. Khosravi (2021) Matrix completion methods for causal panel data models1.00063100%
3Abadie, A., A. Diamond, and J. Hainmueller (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of california’s tobacco control program0.92810580%
4Shen, D., P. Ding, J. Sekhon, and B. Yu (2022) A tale of two panel data regressions0.84333100%
5Moon, H. R. and M. Weidner (2017) Dynamic linear panel regression models with interactive fixed effects0.73732100%
6Hirshberg, D. A (2021) Least squares with error in variables0.6443267%
7Bai, J (2009) Panel data models with interactive fixed effects0.64422100%
8Bai, J. and S. Ng (2019) Rank regularized estimation of approximate factor models0.64422100%
9Imbens, G., N. Kallus, and X. Mao (2021) Controlling for unmeasured confounding in panel data using minimal bridge functions: From two-way fixed effects to factor models self0.64422100%
10Shi, X., W. Miao, M. Hu, and E. T. Tchetgen (2021) Theory for identification and inference with synthetic controls: a proximal causal inference framework0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 39 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Synthetic Parallel Trends0.92843
2On Policy Evaluation With Aggregate Time-Series Instruments0.81142
3Triply Robust Panel Estimators0.81142
42206.017790.51121
5Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey0.51121
6Inference for Synthetic Controls via Refined Placebo Tests0.40511
7Efficient Difference-in-Differences and Event Study Estimators0.40511
8Debiasing and $t$-tests for synthetic control inference on average causal effects0.00021