Qini Curves for Multi-Armed Treatment Rules

Erik Sverdrup, Han Wu, Susan Athey, Stefan Wager

arXiv 21 Jun 2023 · Statistics — Methodology · publishedJournal of Computational and Graphical Statistics (2024) · 7 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2306.11979 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Qini curves have emerged as an attractive and popular approach for evaluating the benefit of data-driven targeting rules for treatment allocation. We propose a generalization of the Qini curve to multiple costly treatment arms, that quantifies the value of optimally selecting among both units and treatment arms at different budget levels. We develop an efficient algorithm for computing these curves and propose bootstrap-based confidence intervals that are exact in large samples for any point on the curve. These confidence intervals can be used to conduct hypothesis tests comparing the value of treatment targeting using an optimal combination of arms with using just a subset of arms, or with a non-targeting assignment rule ignoring covariates, at different budget levels. We demonstrate the statistical performance in a simulation experiment and an application to treatment targeting for election turnout.

Citation extraction

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 77% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

Showing the top 10 of 42 scored citations.