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Quasi-Oracle Estimation of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects

Xinkun Nie, Stefan Wager

arXiv 13 Dec 2017 · Statistics — Machine Learning · publishedBiometrika (2020) · 94 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1712.04912 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Flexible estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects lies at the heart of many statistical challenges, such as personalized medicine and optimal resource allocation. In this paper, we develop a general class of two-step algorithms for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation in observational studies. We first estimate marginal effects and treatment propensities in order to form an objective function that isolates the causal component of the signal. Then, we optimize this data-adaptive objective function. Our approach has several advantages over existing methods. From a practical perspective, our method is flexible and easy to use: In both steps, we can use any loss-minimization method, e.g., penalized regression, deep neural networks, or boosting; moreover, these methods can be fine-tuned by cross validation. Meanwhile, in the case of penalized kernel regression, we show that our method has a quasi-oracle property: Even if the pilot estimates for marginal effects and treatment propensities are not particularly accurate, we achieve the same error bounds as an oracle who has a priori knowledge of these two nuisance components. We implement variants of our approach based on penalized regression, kernel ridge regression, and boosting in a variety of simulation setups, and find promising performance relative to existing baselines.

Citation extraction

71
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1V. Chernozhukov, D. Chetverikov, M. Demirer, E. Duflo, C. Hansen, W.… (2018) Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters1.00095100%
2S. R. Künzel, J. S. Sekhon, P. J. Bickel, and B. Yu (2019) Metalearners for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects using machine learning1.00095100%
3A. R. Luedtke and M. J. van der Laan (2016) Super-learning of an optimal dynamic treatment rule1.00064100%
4S. Powers, J. Qian, K. Jung, A. Schuler, N. H. Shah, T. Hastie, and… (2018) Some methods for heterogeneous treatment effect estimation in high dimensions1.00054100%
5K. Imai and M. Ratkovic (2013) Estimating treatment effect heterogeneity in randomized program evaluation1.00053100%
6S. Wager and S. Athey (2018) Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests0.92844100%
7S. Athey and G. Imbens (2016) Recursive partitioning for heterogeneous causal effects0.92843100%
8S. Athey, J. Tibshirani, and S. Wager (2019) Generalized random forests0.92843100%
9P. R. Hahn, J. S. Murray, and C. M. Carvalho (2020) Bayesian regression tree models for causal inference: regularization, confounding, and heterogeneous effects0.92843100%
10A. Schick (1986) On asymptotically efficient estimation in semiparametric models0.92843100%

Showing the top 10 of 71 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Meta-Learners for Estimation of Causal Effects: Finite Sample Cross-Fit Performance1.000184
2In Search of Insights, Not Magic Bullets: Towards Demystification of the Model Selection Dilemma in Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation0.87495
32310.169450.85583
4Unveiling the Potential of Robustness in Selecting Conditional Average Treatment Effect Estimators0.84353
5Optimal Treatment Allocation under Constraints0.84333
6Kernel Methods for Causal Functions: Dose, Heterogeneous, and Incremental Response Curves0.81152
7Treatment Effect Risk: Bounds and Inference0.81142
8Finding Subgroups with Significant Treatment Effects0.73732
9Stable Probability Weighting Large-Sample and Finite-Sample Estimation and Inference Methods for Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Multivalued Treatments Under Limited Overlap0.73732
10Denoised IPW-Lasso for Heterogeneous Treatment Effect Estimation in Randomized Experiments0.73732