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Statistical Estimation for Covariance Structures with Tail Estimates using Nodewise Quantile Predictive Regression Models

Christis Katsouris

arXiv 18 May 2023 · Econometrics

arXiv:2305.11282 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper considers the specification of covariance structures with tail estimates. We focus on two aspects: (i) the estimation of the VaR-CoVaR risk matrix in the case of larger number of time series observations than assets in a portfolio using quantile predictive regression models without assuming the presence of nonstationary regressors and; (ii) the construction of a novel variable selection algorithm, so-called, Feature Ordering by Centrality Exclusion (FOCE), which is based on an assumption-lean regression framework, has no tuning parameters and is proved to be consistent under general sparsity assumptions. We illustrate the usefulness of our proposed methodology with numerical studies of real and simulated datasets when modelling systemic risk in a network.

Citation extraction

67
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distinct cited
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appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix A. Background Literature” · 62% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Adrian, T. and Brunnermeier, M. K (2016) Covar0.73732100%
2Härdle, W. K., Wang, W., and Yu, L (2016) Tenet: Tail-event driven network risk0.73732100%
3Katsouris, C (2021) Optimal portfolio choice and stock centrality for tail risk events self0.73732100%
4Caner, M., Medeiros, M., and Vasconcelos, G. F (2022) Sharpe ratio analysis in high dimensions: Residual-based nodewise regression in factor models0.69351100%
5Peralta, G. and Zareei, A (2016) A network approach to portfolio selection0.6444250%
6Azadkia, M. and Chatterjee, S (2021) A simple measure of conditional dependence0.64422100%
7Guo, X. and Tang, C (2021) Specification tests for covariance structures in high-dimensional statistical models0.64422100%
8Olmo, J (2021) Optimal portfolio allocation and asset centrality revisited0.64422100%
9Barigozzi, M. and Hallin, M (2017) A network analysis of the volatility of high dimensional financial series0.5112250%
10Billio, M., Getmansky, M., Lo, A. W., and Pelizzon, L (2012) Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors0.5112250%

Showing the top 10 of 68 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Estimating Conditional Value-at-Risk with Nonstationary Quantile Predictive Regression Models1.000124
2Robust Estimation in Network Vector Autoregression with Nonstationary Regressors0.73733
3Quantile Time Series Regression Models Revisited0.64422
4Limit Theory under Network Dependence and Nonstationarity0.40511
5High Dimensional Time Series Regression Models: Applications to Statistical Learning Methods0.40511
6Optimal Estimation Methodologies for Panel Data Regression Models0.40511