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Estimating Conditional Value-at-Risk with Nonstationary Quantile Predictive Regression Models

Christis Katsouris

arXiv 14 Nov 2023 · Econometrics

arXiv:2311.08218 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper develops an asymptotic distribution theory for an endogenous instrumentation approach in quantile predictive regressions when both generated covariates and persistent predictors are used. The generated covariates are obtained from an auxiliary quantile predictive regression model and the statistical problem of interest is the robust estimation and inference of the parameters that correspond to the primary quantile predictive regression in which this generated covariate is added to the set of nonstationary regressors. We find that the proposed doubly IVX corrected estimator is robust to the abstract degree of persistence regardless of the presence of generated regressor obtained from the first stage procedure. The asymptotic properties of the two-stage IVX estimator such as mixed Gaussianity are established while the asymptotic covariance matrix is adjusted to account for the first-step estimation error.

Citation extraction

87
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Adrian, T. and Brunnermeier, M. K (2016) Covar1.000154100%
2Lee, J. H (2016) Predictive quantile regression with persistent covariates: Ivx-qr approach1.000144100%
3Katsouris, C (2021) Optimal portfolio choice and stock centrality for tail risk events self1.000134100%
4Härdle, W. K., Wang, W., and Yu, L (2016) Tenet: Tail-event driven network risk1.000124100%
5Katsouris, C (2023) Statistical estimation for covariance structures with tail estimates using nodewise quantile predictive regression models self1.000124100%
6Demetrescu, M. and Rodrigues, P. M (2020) Residual-augmented ivx predictive regression1.00073100%
7Katsouris, C (2023) Quantile time series regression models revisited self1.00054100%
8Kostakis, A., Magdalinos, T., and Stamatogiannis, M. P (2015) Robust econometric inference for stock return predictability1.00053100%
9Fan, R. and Lee, J. H (2019) Predictive quantile regressions under persistence and conditional heteroskedasticity0.92843100%
10Phillips, P. C. B. and Magdalinos, T (2009) Econometric inference in the vicinity of unity0.87472100%

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Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Robust Estimation in Network Vector Autoregression with Nonstationary Regressors0.64422
2Structural Analysis of Vector Autoregressive Models0.40511