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Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis

Joshua Chan, Eric Eisenstat, Xuewen Yu

arXiv 8 Jul 2022 · Econometrics · 7 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2207.03988 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Vector autoregressions (VARs) with multivariate stochastic volatility are widely used for structural analysis. Often the structural model identified through economically meaningful restrictions--e.g., sign restrictions--is supposed to be independent of how the dependent variables are ordered. But since the reduced-form model is not order invariant, results from the structural analysis depend on the order of the variables. We consider a VAR based on the factor stochastic volatility that is constructed to be order invariant. We show that the presence of multivariate stochastic volatility allows for statistical identification of the model. We further prove that, with a suitable set of sign restrictions, the corresponding structural model is point-identified. An additional appeal of the proposed approach is that it can easily handle a large number of dependent variables as well as sign restrictions. We demonstrate the methodology through a structural analysis in which we use a 20-variable VAR with sign restrictions to identify 5 structural shocks.

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appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix A: Proofs of Propositions” · 53% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Korobilis (2020) A new algorithm for structural restrictions in Bayesian vector autoregressions1.00054100%
2Chan and Jeliazkov (2009) Efficient simulation and integrated likelihood estimation in state space models self0.9285380%
3Furlanetto, Ravazzolo, and Sarferaz (2019) Identification of financial factors in economic fluctuations0.874142100%
4Chan, Koop, Poirier, and Tobias (2019) Bayesian Econometric Methods\/0.7373367%
5Sentana and Fiorentini (2001) Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models0.73732100%
6Cogley and Sargent (2005) Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US0.69351100%
7Anderson and Rubin (1956) Statistical inference in factor analysis0.6444250%
8Primiceri (2005) Time varying structural vector autoregressions and monetary policy0.64441100%
9Carriero, Clark, and Marcellino (2019) Large Bayesian vector autoregressions with stochastic volatility and non-conjugate priors0.64422100%
10Hansen and Sargent (1991) Two difficulties in interpreting vector autoregressions0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 84 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1A large non-Gaussian structural VAR with application to Monetary Policy0.87452
2BVARs and Stochastic Volatility0.64422
3Large structural VARs with multiple linear shock and impact inequality restrictions0.64422
4Large Structural VARs with Multiple Sign and Ranking Restrictions0.40511
5Exploring Monetary Policy Shocks with Large-Scale Bayesian VARs\@thefnmark\@footnotetext I would like to thank Martin Bruns, Luca Gambetti, Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, Mirela Miescu, Ivan Petrella, Giorgio Primiceri, Barbara Rossi and Lorenza Rossi for their valuable comments and suggestions. I also thank participants at the University of Lancaster's Workshop on Empirical and Theoretical Macroeconomics, the University of East Anglia “2nd Time Series Workshop”, the Collegio Carlo Alberto conference on “The Economics of Risk: Econometric Tools and Policy Implications”, and seminar participants at Universities of Manchester and Paris Dauphine for their insightful feedback. Any remaining errors are solely my responsibility. Correspondence: Professor of Econometrics, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, 2 Discovery Place, Glasgow, G11 6EY, United Kingdom0.40511