EconBase
← All papers

A new algorithm for structural restrictions in Bayesian vector autoregressions

Dimitris Korobilis

arXiv 14 Jun 2022 · Econometrics · publishedEuropean Economic Review (2022) · 29 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2206.06892 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

A comprehensive methodology for inference in vector autoregressions (VARs) using sign and other structural restrictions is developed. The reduced-form VAR disturbances are driven by a few common factors and structural identification restrictions can be incorporated in their loadings in the form of parametric restrictions. A Gibbs sampler is derived that allows for reduced-form parameters and structural restrictions to be sampled efficiently in one step. A key benefit of the proposed approach is that it allows for treating parameter estimation and structural inference as a joint problem. An additional benefit is that the methodology can scale to large VARs with multiple shocks, and it can be extended to accommodate non-linearities, asymmetries, and numerous other interesting empirical features. The excellent properties of the new algorithm for inference are explored using synthetic data experiments, and by revisiting the role of financial factors in economic fluctuations using identification based on sign restrictions.

Citation extraction

37
references
155
in-text mentions
37
distinct cited
0
self-citations
11,476
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Technical Appendix” · 68% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Rubio-Ramírez, J. F., D. F. Waggoner, and T. Zha (2010) Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference0.90319674%
2Baumeister, C. and J. D. Hamilton (2015) Sign Restrictions, Structural Vector Autoregressions, and Useful Prior Information0.8746367%
3Koop, G. and D. Korobilis (2010) Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics0.84333100%
4Kilian, L. and H. Lütkepohl (2017) Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis0.81142100%
5Furlanetto, F., F. Ravazzolo, and S. Sarferaz (2019) Identification of Financial Factors in Economic Fluctuations0.80039551%
6Stock, J. H. and M. W. Watson (2005) Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis, Working Paper 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research0.73732100%
7Ahmadi, P. A. and H. Uhlig (2015) Sign Restrictions in Bayesian FaVARs with an Application to Monetary Policy Shocks, Working Paper 21738, National Bureau of Econ…0.64441100%
8Bernanke, B. S., J. Boivin, and P. Eliasz (2005) Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach*0.64422100%
9Geweke, J. F (1996) Bayesian Inference for Linear Models Subject to Linear Inequality Constraints, in0.6308238%
10Arias, J. E., J. F. Rubio-Ramírez, and D. F. Waggoner (2018) Inference Based on Structural Vector Autoregressions Identified With Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications0.58510320%

Showing the top 10 of 37 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Large Bayesian VARs with Factor Stochastic Volatility: Identification, Order Invariance and Structural Analysis1.00054
2Bayesian Modeling of TVP-VARs Using Regression Trees0.92843
3A Nonparametric Approach to Augmenting a Bayesian VAR with Nonlinear Factors0.92843
4Exploring Monetary Policy Shocks with Large-Scale Bayesian VARs\@thefnmark\@footnotetext I would like to thank Martin Bruns, Luca Gambetti, Domenico Giannone, Michele Lenza, Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, Mirela Miescu, Ivan Petrella, Giorgio Primiceri, Barbara Rossi and Lorenza Rossi for their valuable comments and suggestions. I also thank participants at the University of Lancaster's Workshop on Empirical and Theoretical Macroeconomics, the University of East Anglia “2nd Time Series Workshop”, the Collegio Carlo Alberto conference on “The Economics of Risk: Econometric Tools and Policy Implications”, and seminar participants at Universities of Manchester and Paris Dauphine for their insightful feedback. Any remaining errors are solely my responsibility. Correspondence: Professor of Econometrics, Adam Smith Business School, University of Glasgow, 2 Discovery Place, Glasgow, G11 6EY, United Kingdom0.87472
5Learning from crises: A new class of time-varying parameter VARs with observable adaptation\@thefnmark\@footnotetext Correspondence: Dimitris Korobilis, Professor of Econometrics, Adam Smith Business School, 2 Discovery Place, Glasgow, G11 6EY, United Kingdom0.84333
6Monthly GDP Growth Estimates for the U.S. States0.64442
7Agreed and Disagreed Uncertainty0.60662
8Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk\@thefnmark\@footnotetextWe would like to thank Raffaella Giacomini, Sylvia Kaufmann, Massimiliano Marcellino, Christian Matthes, Mirco Rubin, Neil Shephard, Leif Anders Thorsrud and participants at the following conferences, for useful discussions and comments: 12th European Seminar on Bayesian Econometrics in Salzburg; “Advances in alternative data and machine learning for macroeconomics and finance” in Paris; Barcelona Workshop on Financial Econometrics; 27th International Conference on Macroeconomic Analysis and International Finance in Rethymno; 2023 Finance and Business Analytics Conference in Lefkada; 10th IAAE Annual Conference in Oslo. We would also like to thank seminar participants at the following institutions: BI Norwegian Business School, European Central Bank, University of Lancaster. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of Norges Bank or any of the affiliated institutions0.40511
9Large Structural VARs with Multiple Sign and Ranking Restrictions0.40511