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Exploring Monetary Policy Shocks with Large-Scale Bayesian VARs

Dimitris Korobilis

arXiv 10 May 2025 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2505.06649 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

I introduce a high-dimensional Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) framework designed to estimate the effects of conventional monetary policy shocks. The model captures structural shocks as latent factors, enabling computationally efficient estimation in high-dimensional settings through a straightforward Gibbs sampler. By incorporating time variation in the effects of monetary policy while maintaining tractability, the methodology offers a flexible and scalable approach to empirical macroeconomic analysis using BVARs, well-suited to handle data irregularities observed in recent times. Applied to the U.S. economy, I identify monetary shocks using a combination of high-frequency surprises and sign restrictions, yielding results that are robust across a wide range of specification choices. The findings indicate that the Federal Reserve's influence on disaggregated consumer prices fluctuated significantly during the 2022-24 high-inflation period, shedding new light on the evolving dynamics of monetary policy transmission.

Citation extraction

36
references
65
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distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Jarociński, M (2024) Estimating the Fed’s unconventional policy shocks1.00063100%
2Jarociński, M. and Karadi, P (2020) Deconstructing monetary policy surprises—The role of information shocks0.92843100%
3Korobilis, D (2022) A new algorithm for structural restrictions in Bayesian vector autoregressions self0.87472100%
4Gürkaynak, R. S., Sack, B., and Swanson, E (2005) Do actions speak louder than words? The response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements0.87452100%
5Bauer, M. D. and Swanson, E. T (2023) Fed information effect0.73732100%
6Braun, R. and Brüggemann, R (2023) Identification of SVAR models by combining sign restrictions with external instruments0.73732100%
7Mumtaz, H. and Petrova, K (2023) Changing impact of shocks: A time-varying proxy SVAR approach0.64422100%
8Acosta, M., Brennan, C. M., and Jacobson, M. M (2024) Constructing high-frequency monetary policy surprises from SOFR futures0.58531100%
9Acosta, M (2023) The perceived causes of monetary policy surprises0.51121100%
10Read, M (2024) Set-identified structural vector autoregressions and the effects of a 100 basis point monetary policy shock0.51121100%

Showing the top 10 of 36 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Large structural VARs with multiple linear shock and impact inequality restrictions0.40511