Marcelo C. Medeiros, Henrique F. Pires
arXiv 7 Apr 2021 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)
arXiv:2104.03065 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
It is widely known that Google Trends have become one of the most popular free tools used by forecasters both in academics and in the private and public sectors. There are many papers, from several different fields, concluding that Google Trends improve forecasts' accuracy. However, what seems to be widely unknown, is that each sample of Google search data is different from the other, even if you set the same search term, data and location. This means that it is possible to find arbitrary conclusions merely by chance. This paper aims to show why and when it can become a problem and how to overcome this obstacle.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | L. Ferrara and A. Simoni (2019) When are google data useful to nowcast gdp? an approach via pre-selection and shrinkage | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 2 | N. Woloszko (2020) Tracking activity in real time with google trends | 0.511 | 2 | 2 | 50% |
| 3 | M. Medeiros, A. Street, D. Valladão, G. Vasconcelos, and E. Zilberman (2004) Short-Term Covid-19 Forecast for Latecomers | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 4 | C. B. Carneiro, I. H. Ferreira, M. C. Medeiros, H. F. Pires, and E.… (2009) Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach self | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 5 | F. Amuri and J. Marcucci (2017) The predictive power of google searches in forecasting us unemployment | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | N. Askitas and K. Zimmermann (2009) Google econometrics and unemployment nowcasting | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | S. Doerr and L. Gambacorta (2020) Identifying regions at risk with google trends: the impact of covid-19 on us labour markets | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | D. Borup and E. Schütte (2020) In search of a job: Forecasting employment growth using google trends | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | D. Borup, D. Rapach, and E. Schütte (2021) Now- and backcasting initial claims with high-dimensional daily internet search-volume data | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | C. Pelat, C. Turbelin, A. Bar-Hen, A. Flahault, and A. Valleron (2009) More diseases tracked by using google trends | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 23 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nowcasting R&D Expenditures: A Machine Learning Approach | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | Quantifying Demand Shocks in the Green and Digital Transition | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |