Nowcasting R&D Expenditures: A Machine Learning Approach

Atin Aboutorabi, Gaétan de Rassenfosse

arXiv 16 Jul 2024 · Econometrics

arXiv:2407.11765 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Macroeconomic data are crucial for monitoring countries' performance and driving policy. However, traditional data acquisition processes are slow, subject to delays, and performed at a low frequency. We address this 'ragged-edge' problem with a two-step framework. The first step is a supervised learning model predicting observed low-frequency figures. We propose a neural-network-based nowcasting model that exploits mixed-frequency, high-dimensional data. The second step uses the elasticities derived from the previous step to interpolate unobserved high-frequency figures. We apply our method to nowcast countries' yearly research and development (R&D) expenditure series. These series are collected through infrequent surveys, making them ideal candidates for this task. We exploit a range of predictors, chiefly Internet search volume data, and document the relevance of these data in improving out-of-sample predictions. Furthermore, we leverage the high frequency of our data to derive monthly estimates of R&D expenditures, which are currently unobserved. We compare our results with those obtained from the classical regression-based and the sparse temporal disaggregation methods. Finally, we validate our results by reporting a strong correlation with monthly R&D employment data.

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