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Lockdown effects in US states: an artificial counterfactual approach

Carlos B. Carneiro, Iúri H. Ferreira, Marcelo C. Medeiros, Henrique F. Pires, Eduardo Zilberman

arXiv 28 Sep 2020 · Statistics — Applications · 5 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2009.13484 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We adopt an artificial counterfactual approach to assess the impact of lockdowns on the short-run evolution of the number of cases and deaths in some US states. To do so, we explore the different timing in which US states adopted lockdown policies, and divide them among treated and control groups. For each treated state, we construct an artificial counterfactual. On average, and in the very short-run, the counterfactual accumulated number of cases would be two times larger if lockdown policies were not implemented.

Citation extraction

27
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1R. Masini and M. Medeiros (2019) Counterfactual analysis with artificial controls: Inference, high dimensions and nonstationarity0.87452100%
2V. Chernozhukov, H. Kasahara, and P. Schrimpf (2021) Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the U.S0.73732100%
3C. Carvalho, R. Masini, and M. Medeiros (2018) ArCo: An artificial counterfactual approach for high-dimensional panel time-series data0.64422100%
4S. Stephens-Davidowitz (2014) The cost of racial animus on a black candidate: Evidence using google search data0.51121100%
5A. Brzezinski, G. Deiana, V. Kecht, and D. V. Dijcke (2020) The covid-19 pandemic: Government vs. community action across the United States0.51121100%
6J. Pearl (1993) Comment: Graphical models, causality and intervention0.51121100%
7M. Medeiros and E. Mendes (2016) $_1$-regularization of high-dimensional time-series models with non-gaussian and heteroskedastic innovations0.40511100%
8A. Abadie, A. Diamond, and J. Hainmueller (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program0.40511100%
9A. Abadie and J. Gardeazabal (2003) The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the Basque country0.40511100%
10F. Alvarez, D. Argente, and F. Lippi (2020) A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 27 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1The Proper Use of Google Trends in Forecasting Models0.40511