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Finite-Sample Optimal Estimation and Inference on Average Treatment Effects Under Unconfoundedness

Timothy B. Armstrong, Michal Kolesár

arXiv 13 Dec 2017 · Statistics — Applications · publishedEconometrica (2021) · 33 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1712.04594 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We consider estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness conditional on the realizations of the treatment variable and covariates. Given nonparametric smoothness and/or shape restrictions on the conditional mean of the outcome variable, we derive estimators and confidence intervals (CIs) that are optimal in finite samples when the regression errors are normal with known variance. In contrast to conventional CIs, our CIs use a larger critical value that explicitly takes into account the potential bias of the estimator. When the error distribution is unknown, feasible versions of our CIs are valid asymptotically, even when $\sqrt{n}$-inference is not possible due to lack of overlap, or low smoothness of the conditional mean. We also derive the minimum smoothness conditions on the conditional mean that are necessary for $\sqrt{n}$-inference. When the conditional mean is restricted to be Lipschitz with a large enough bound on the Lipschitz constant, the optimal estimator reduces to a matching estimator with the number of matches set to one. We illustrate our methods in an application to the National Supported Work Demonstration.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Abadie, A. and Imbens, G. W (2006) Large sample properties of matching estimators for average treatment effects0.87452100%
2Abadie, A. and Imbens, G. W (2011) Bias-corrected matching estimators for average treatment effects0.81142100%
3Efron, B., Hastie, T., Johnstone, I. M., and Tibshirani, R. J (2004) Least angle regression0.7373367%
4Armstrong, T. B. and Kolesár, M (2018) Finite-sample optimal estimation and inference on average treatment effects under unconfoundedness self0.64422100%
5Khan, S. and Tamer, E (2010) Irregular identification, support conditions, and inverse weight estimation0.64422100%
6Noack, C. and Rothe, C (2020) Bias-aware inference in fuzzy regression discontinuity designs0.64422100%
7Kallus, N (2020) Generalized optimal matching methods for causal inference0.64422100%
8Robins, J., Tchetgen, E. T., Li, L., and van der Vaart, A. W (2009) Semiparametric minimax rates0.64422100%
9Rothe, C (2017) Robust confidence intervals for average treatment effects under limited overlap0.64422100%
10Donoho, D. L (1994) Statistical estimation and optimal recovery0.63012325%

Showing the top 10 of 41 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Bounding Treatment Effects by Pooling Limited Information across Observations0.81142
2Optimal estimation for regression discontinuity design with binary outcomes0.73733
3Estimating Treatment Effects Under Bounded Heterogeneity0.73732
4Stable Probability Weighting Large-Sample and Finite-Sample Estimation and Inference Methods for Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Multivalued Treatments Under Limited Overlap0.69391
5Inference in Regression Discontinuity Designs under Monotonicity0.64422
6Shrinkage Methods for Treatment Choice0.64422
7Matching Estimators with Few Treated and Many Control Observations0.51121
8Robust Inference for Weighted Estimands0.51121
9Policy Learning with Observational Data0.40511
10Finite Sample Inference for the Maximum Score Estimand0.40511