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Sparse Bayesian time-varying covariance estimation in many dimensions

Gregor Kastner

arXiv 30 Aug 2016 · Statistics — Methodology · publishedJournal of Econometrics (2018) · 111 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1608.08468 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We address the curse of dimensionality in dynamic covariance estimation by modeling the underlying co-volatility dynamics of a time series vector through latent time-varying stochastic factors. The use of a global-local shrinkage prior for the elements of the factor loadings matrix pulls loadings on superfluous factors towards zero. To demonstrate the merits of the proposed framework, the model is applied to simulated data as well as to daily log-returns of 300 S&P 500 members. Our approach yields precise correlation estimates, strong implied minimum variance portfolio performance and superior forecasting accuracy in terms of log predictive scores when compared to typical benchmarks.

Citation extraction

64
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Chib, Siddhartha, Nardari, Federico, Shephard, Neil (2006) Analysis of High Dimensional Multivariate Stochastic Volatility Models0.92843100%
2Aguilar, Omar, West, Mike (2000) Bayesian Dynamic Factor Models and Portfolio Allocation0.84333100%
3Griffin, J. E., Brown, P. J (2010) Inference with Normal-Gamma Prior Distributions in Regression Problems0.84333100%
4Pitt, Michael K., Shephard, Neil, Bernardo, J. M., Berger, J. O., Da… (1999) Time-Varying Covariances: A Factor Stochastic Volatility Approach0.84333100%
5Kastner, Gregor, Lopes, Hedibert Freitas (2017) Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Factor Stochastic Volatility Models self0.73732100%
6Han, Y (2006) Asset Allocation with a High Dimensional Latent Factor Stochastic Volatility Model0.64422100%
7Harvey, A. C., Ruiz, E., Shephard, N (1994) Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models0.64422100%
8Huber, Florian, Feldkircher, Martin (2017) Adaptive Shrinkage in Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Models0.64422100%
9Ishihara, Tsunehiro, Omori, Yasuhiro (2017) Portfolio Optimization Using Dynamic Factor and Stochastic Volatility: Evidence on Fat-Tailed Error and Leverage0.64422100%
10Lopes, H. F., Carvalho, C. M (2007) Factor Stochastic Volatility With Time Varying Loadings and Markov Switching Regimes0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 64 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

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Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Dynamic Portfolio Allocation in High Dimensions using Sparse Risk Factors1.00053
2Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs0.73732
3BVARs and Stochastic Volatility0.73732
4Sparse Bayesian Vector Autoregressions in Huge Dimensions0.64422
5Forecasting macroeconomic data with Bayesian VARs: Sparse or dense? It depends!0.64422
6Integration or fragmentation? A closer look at euro area financial markets0.58531
7Large Order-Invariant Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility0.51121
8Bundle Choice Model with Endogenous Regressors: An Application to Soda Tax0.51121
9Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Factor Stochastic Volatility Models0.40511
10Flexible shrinkage in high-dimensional Bayesian spatial autoregressive models0.40511