arXiv 16 Sep 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2609.18600 · PDF · Extracted main text
This paper develops a framework for individualized treatment allocation when interventions shift equilibrium prices and generate spillovers across treated and untreated units. The planner chooses which units receive a subsidy while allowing equilibrium prices to adjust endogenously. We show that the resulting welfare function is supermodular under broad and interpretable conditions, implying complementarity across treatment assignments and enabling exact polynomial-time optimization. This structure clarifies how equilibrium spillovers shape the trade-off between universal and targeted distribution and makes the planner's problem computationally tractable despite interactions across units. We characterize when universal or targeted subsidies are optimal and show how market conditions and heterogeneity shape the optimal allocation. We further establish statistical guarantees for plug-in allocation under estimation uncertainty in demand and supply. Finally, we illustrate the framework in a coupon allocation problem calibrated with household expenditure data from the Philippines.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Evan Munro and Xu Kuang and Stefan Wager (2025) Treatment Effects in Market Equilibrium | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Deon Filmer and Jed Friedman and Eeshani Kandpal and Junko Onishi (2023) Cash Transfers, Food Prices, and Nutrition Impacts on Ineligible Children | 0.811 | 4 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Peter M. Aronow and Cyrus Samii (2017) Estimating Average Causal Effects under General Interference, with Application to a Social Network Experiment | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Satoru Iwata and Lisa Fleischer and Satoru Fujishige (2001) A Combinatorial Strongly Polynomial Algorithm for Minimizing Submodular Functions | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | James B. Orlin (2009) A Faster Strongly Polynomial Time Algorithm for Submodular Function Minimization | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Alexander Schrijver (2000) A Combinatorial Algorithm Minimizing Submodular Functions in Strongly Polynomial Time | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Ananth (2021) Optimal Treatment Assignment Rules on Networked Populations | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Athey, Susan and Wager, Stefan (2021) Policy Learning With Observational Data | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Debopam Bhattacharya and Pascaline Dupas and Shin Kanaya (2024) Demand and Welfare Analysis in Discrete Choice Models with Social Interactions | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Ying Chen and Mingyi Li and Jiaming Mao and Jingyi Zhou (2026) Consumption stimulus with digital coupons: Heterogeneity and policy design | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 37 scored citations.