arXiv 10 Sep 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2609.10971 · PDF · Extracted main text
We show how to optimally design experiments when the resulting data will be used to choose a welfare-maximizing policy subject to constraints. A decision maker seeks to maximize Bayes expected welfare by choosing a policy whose effects depend on an unknown finite-dimensional parameter. The decision maker has access to a first wave of experimental data with a fixed design but may choose the design of a second wave that will be collected before choosing the policy. The resulting experimental design--policy choice problem is a very high-dimensional dynamic program that is generally intractable in finite samples. We propose a tractable approximation based on the limit experiment and show it is asymptotically optimal using a new asymptotic representation theorem for adaptive experiments with continuous treatments. We apply the method to a conditional cash transfer experiment and demonstrate the potential for large gains from tailoring the experiment to the policy choice.
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| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hirano, Keisuke and Porter, Jack R Asymptotic Representations for Sequential Decisions, Adaptive Experiments, and Batched Bandits | 0.950 | 7 | 3 | 86% |
| 2 | Adusumilli, Karun Risk and Optimal Policies in Bandit Experiments | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Van der Vaart, Aad W Asymptotic Statistics | 0.737 | 5 | 2 | 60% |
| 4 | Attanasio, Orazio P. and Meghir, Costas and Santiago, Ana Education Choices in Mexico: Using a Structural Model and a Randomized Experiment to Evaluate PROGRESA | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Hirano, Keisuke and Porter, Jack R Asymptotics for Statistical Treatment Rules | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Todd, Petra E and Wolpin, Kenneth I Assessing the Impact of a School Subsidy Program in Mexico: Using a Social Experiment to Validate a Dynamic Behavioral Model of… | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Adusumilli, Karun How to Sample and When to Stop Sampling: The Generalised Wald Problem and Minimax Policies | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Athey, Susan and Wager, Stefan Policy Learning With Observational Data | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Kitagawa, Toru and Tetenov, Aleksey Who Should Be Treated? Empirical Welfare Maximization Methods for Treatment Choice | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Athey, S. and Imbens, G.W The Econometrics of Randomized Experiments | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 44 scored citations.