arXiv 4 Jun 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2606.06251 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
This paper studies interdependent durations as equilibrium outcomes of a synchronization game, a continuous-time stopping game in which the incentive to stop increases when other players stop. We allow the payoffs to vary with both common shocks and observed and unobserved agent characteristics. The common shocks follow a spectrally negative Lévy process, a semiparametric process that includes Brownian motion as a special case but may also have jumps. We show that equilibrium outcomes can be represented as interdependent hitting times and use this to establish the game's nonparametric identification from data on stopping times and covariates. We develop maximum simulated likelihood and method of simulated moments estimators and evaluate their finite-sample and computational performance in Monte Carlo experiments. The results provide a tractable framework for identifying and estimating synchronization games from interdependent duration data.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abbring, J. H. and Y. Yu (2026) Interdependent hitting times self | 1.000 | 16 | 5 | 100% |
| 2 | Abbring, J. H (2012) Mixed hitting-time models self | 1.000 | 10 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Abbring, J. H. and T. Salimans (2021) The likelihood of mixed hitting times self | 1.000 | 6 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | de Paula, A (2009) Inference in a synchronization game with social interactions | 0.874 | 8 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Abbring, J. H (2010) Identification of dynamic discrete choice models self | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Murto, P (2004) Exit in duopoly under uncertainty | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Vitorino, M. A (2012) Empirical entry games with complementarities: An application to the shopping center industry | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Boyarchenko, S. and S. Levendorski (2007) Irreversible Decisions under Uncertainty: Optimal Stopping Made Easy | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Stokey, N (2009) The Economics of Inaction: Stochastic Control Models with Fixed Costs | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Gourieroux, C. and A. Monfort (1996) Simulation-Based Econometric Methods | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 29 scored citations.