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Scalable Structural Estimation of Networked Infrastructure: Exact Decomposition for Localized Coordination

L. Kaili Diamond, Ben Gilbert

arXiv 6 May 2026 · Econometrics

arXiv:2605.04592 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Interaction effects are often economically central in environments where structural dynamic estimation becomes computationally infeasible. Under fixed group membership and sparse within-group interaction structure, the Bellman operator admits a block-diagonal decomposition that allows high-dimensional dynamic programs to be solved through independent group-level subproblems while preserving the original structural problem exactly. The result applies to a class of dynamic discrete choice models in which interactions are confined within stable local groups and state transitions depend only on within-group conditions. We apply the framework to replacement decisions across 14,344 GPU node locations in the Titan supercomputer, where operating environments differ systematically across cage positions. The structural estimates reveal significant spatial coordination: both neighboring failures and recent local replacement activity increase replacement incentives. Accounting for these interaction effects materially shifts predicted replacement timing and reveals significant misoptimization costs in benchmarks that assume conditional independence. More broadly, the results show how exploiting sparsity in interaction structures can make fully structural estimation feasible in large-scale networked systems without relying on simulation-based auxiliary moments or numerical approximation.

Citation extraction

16
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19
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distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Diamond, L and Gilbert, Benjamin (2025) The Economics of Spatial Coordination in Critical Infrastructure Investment self0.64422100%
2Ostrouchov, George and Maxwell, Don and Ashraf, Rizwan A. and Engelm… (2020) GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability0.64422100%
3Rust, John (1987) Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher0.51121100%
4Tsakiris, Manolis C. and Tarraf, Danielle C (2015) Algebraic decompositions of dynamic programming problems with linear dynamics0.40511100%
5Aguirregabiria, Victor and Mira, Pedro (2007) Sequential Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Games0.40511100%
6Anselin, Luc (1988) Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models0.40511100%
7Bajari, Patrick and Benkard, C. Lanier and Levin, Jonathan (2007) Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition0.40511100%
8Benkard, C Lanier (2000) Learning and forgetting: The dynamics of aircraft production0.40511100%
9Bramoullé, Yann and Djebbari, Habiba and Fortin, Bernard (2009) Identification of Peer Effects through Social Networks0.40511100%
10Cai, Yongyang and Judd, Kenneth L (2010) Dynamic Programming with Hermite Approximation0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 16 scored citations.