L Kaili Diamond, Benjamin Gilbert
arXiv 5 Nov 2025 · Econometrics
arXiv:2511.03091 · PDF · Extracted main text
We develop a hybrid approach to estimate spatial coordination mechanisms in structural dynamic discrete choice models by combining nested fixed-point (NFXP) dynamic programming with method of simulated moments (MSM), achieving computational tractability in spatial settings while preserving structural interpretation. Applying this framework to GPU replacement data from 12,915 equipment locations in Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Titan supercomputer, we identify two distinct coordination mechanisms: sequential replacement cascades (gamma_lag = -0.793) and contemporaneous failure batching (gamma_fail = -0.265). Sequential coordination dominates - approximately three times stronger than failure batching - indicating that operators engage in deliberate strategic behavior rather than purely reactive responses. Spatial interdependencies account for 5.3% of variation unexplained by independent-decision models, with coordination concentrated in high-risk thermal environments exhibiting effects more than 10 times stronger than cool zones. Formal tests decisively reject spatial independence (chi-squared(2) = 685.38, p < 0.001), demonstrating that infrastructure policies ignoring spatial coordination will systematically mistime interventions and forgo available coordination gains.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rust, John (1987) Optimal replacement of GMC bus engines: An empirical model of Harold Zurcher | 1.000 | 6 | 4 | 100% |
| 2 | Ostrouchov, George and Maxwell, Don and Ashraf, Rizwan A. and Engelm… (2020) GPU Lifetimes on Titan Supercomputer: Survival Analysis and Reliability | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Aguirregabiria, Victor and Mira, Pedro (2010) Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | LeSage, James and Pace, R Kelley (2009) Introduction to spatial econometrics | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Anselin, Luc (1988) Spatial econometrics: methods and models | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Bandiera, Oriana and Rasul, Imran (2006) Social Networks and Technology Adoption in Northern Mozambique | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 7 | Berry, Steven and Levinsohn, James and Pakes, Ariel (1995) Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 8 | Conley, Timothy G. and Udry, Christopher R (2010) Learning About a New Technology: Pineapple in Ghana | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | Keane, Michael P. and Wolpin, Kenneth I (1997) The Career Decisions of Young Men | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Klier, Thomas and McMillen, Daniel P (2008) Clustering of Auto Supplier Plants in the United States | 0.405 | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 16 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scalable Structural Estimation of Networked Infrastructure: Exact Decomposition for Localized Coordination | 0.644 | 2 | 2 |