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Difference-in-Differences in the Presence of Unknown Interference

Fabrizia Mealli, Javier Viviens

arXiv 24 Dec 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2512.21176 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

The stable unit treatment value (SUTVA) is a crucial assumption in the Difference-in-Differences (DiD) research design. It rules out hidden versions of treatment and any sort of interference and spillover effects across units. Even if this is a strong assumption, it has not received much attention from DiD practitioners and, in many cases, it is not even explicitly stated as an assumption, especially the no-interference assumption. In this technical note, we investigate what the DiD estimand identifies in the presence of unknown interference. We show that the DiD estimand identifies a contrast of causal effects, but it is not informative on any of these causal effects separately, without invoking further assumptions. Then, we explore different sets of assumptions under which the DiD estimand becomes informative about specific causal effects. We illustrate these results by revisiting the seminal paper on minimum wages and employment by Card and Krueger (1994).

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36
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61
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Card, D. and Krueger, A. B (1994) Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania1.000113100%
2Arkhangelsky, D. and Imbens, G (2024) Causal models for longitudinal and panel data: a survey0.73732100%
3Imbens, G. W. and Rubin, D. B (2015) Causal Inference for Statistics, Social, and Biomedical Sciences: An Introduction0.73732100%
4Braghieri, L., Levy, R., and Makarin, A (2022) Social Media and Mental Health0.64422100%
5Butts, K (2023) Difference-in-Differences Estimation with Spatial Spillovers0.64422100%
6Chen, Q., Chen, Z., Liu, Z., Suárez Serrato, J. C., and Xu, D. Y (2025) Regulating Conglomerates: Evidence from an Energy Conservation Program in China0.64422100%
7Fenizia, A. and Saggio, R (2024) Organized Crime and Economic Growth: Evidence from Municipalities Infiltrated by the Mafia0.64422100%
8Grossi, G., Mariani, M., Mattei, A., Lattarulo, P., and Oner, O (2023) Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach0.64422100%
9Hettinger, G., Roberto, C., Lee, Y., and Mitra, N (2024) Doubly robust estimation of policy-relevant causal effects under interference0.64422100%
10Rambachan, A. and Roth, J (2023) A More Credible Approach to Parallel Trends0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 36 scored citations.