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Direct and spillover effects of a new tramway line on the commercial vitality of peripheral streets. A synthetic-control approach

Giulio Grossi, Marco Mariani, Alessandra Mattei, Patrizia Lattarulo, Özge Öner

arXiv 10 Apr 2020 · Statistics — Applications · publishedJournal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society) (2024) · 4 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2004.05027 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

In cities, the creation of public transport infrastructure such as light rails can cause changes on a very detailed spatial scale, with different stories unfolding next to each other within a same urban neighborhood. We study the direct effect of a light rail line built in Florence (Italy) on the retail density of the street where it was built and and its spillover effect on other streets in the treated street's neighborhood. To this aim, we investigate the use of the Synthetic Control Group (SCG) methods in panel comparative case studies where interference between the treated and the untreated units is plausible, an issue still little researched in the SCG methodological literature. We frame our discussion in the potential outcomes approach. Under a partial interference assumption, we formally define relevant direct and spillover causal effects. We also consider the “unrealized” spillover effect on the treated street in the hypothetical scenario that another street in the treated unit's neighborhood had been assigned to the intervention.

Citation extraction

52
references
101
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distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J (2010) Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: Estimating the effect of california’s tobacco control program1.000114100%
2Abadie, A. and L’Hour, J (2021) A penalized synthetic control estimator for disaggregated data1.00094100%
3Abadie, A. and Gardeazabal, J (2003) The economic costs of conflict: A case study of the basque country1.00063100%
4Abadie, A., Diamond, A., and Hainmueller, J (2015) Comparative politics and the synthetic control method0.92843100%
5Credit, K (2018) Transit-oriented economic development: The impact of light rail on new business starts in the phoenix, az region, usa0.92843100%
6Papadogeorgou, G., Mealli, F., and Zigler, C. M (2019) Causal inference with interfering units for cluster and population level treatment allocation programs0.84333100%
7Schuetz, J (2015) Do rail transit stations encourage neighbourhood retail activity?0.84333100%
8Sobel, M. E (2006) What do randomized studies of housing mobility demonstrate? causal inference in the face of interference0.73732100%
9Abadie, A (2021) Using synthetic controls: Feasibility, data requirements, and methodological aspects0.64422100%
10Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., Kermani, A., Kwak, J., and Mitton, T (2016) The value of connections in turbulent times: Evidence from the united states0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 52 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Difference-in-Differences in the Presence of Unknown Interference0.64422
2Estimation and Inference for Synthetic Control Methods with Spillover Effects0.51121
3The inclusive Synthetic Control Method0.40511