Policy-Aligned Estimation of Conditional Average Treatment Effects

Artem Timoshenko, Caio Waisman

arXiv 15 Dec 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2512.13400 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Firms often develop targeting policies to personalize marketing actions and improve incremental profits. Effective targeting depends on accurately separating customers with positive versus negative treatment effects. We propose an approach to estimate the conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) of marketing actions that aligns their estimation with the firm's profit objective. The method recognizes that, for many customers, treatment effects are so extreme that additional accuracy is unlikely to change the recommended actions. However, accuracy matters near the decision boundary, as small errors can alter targeting decisions. By modifying the firm's objective function in the standard profit maximization problem, our method yields a near-optimal targeting policy while simultaneously estimating CATEs. This introduces a new perspective on CATE estimation, reframing it as a problem of profit optimization rather than prediction accuracy. We establish the theoretical properties of the proposed method and demonstrate its performance and trade-offs using synthetic data.

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