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Robust Counterfactuals in Centralized Schools Choice Systems: Addressing Gender Inequality in STEM Education

Lixiong Li, Ismaël Mourifié

arXiv 8 Dec 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2512.08115 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

Counterfactual analysis is central to education market design and provides a foundation for credible policy recommendations. We develop a novel methodology for counterfactual analysis in Gale-Shapley deferred-acceptance (DA) assignment mechanisms under a weaker set of assumptions than those typically imposed in existing empirical works. Instead of fully specifying utility functions or students' beliefs about admission probabilities, we rely on interpretable restrictions on behavior that yield an incomplete but flexible model of preferences. This framework addresses the challenge of partial identification by delivering sharp bounds on counterfactual stable matching outcomes, which we compute efficiently using a combination of algorithmic techniques and integer programming. We illustrate the methodology by evaluating policies aimed at increasing female enrollment in STEM fields in Chile.

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46
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Fack, Gabrielle and Grenet, Julien and He, Yinghua (2019) Beyond Truth-Telling: Preference Estimation with Centralized School Choice and College Admissions1.000114100%
2Azevedo, Eduardo M. and Leshno, Jacob D (2016) A Supply and Demand Framework for Two-Sided Matching Markets1.00053100%
3Ngo, Diana and Dustan, Andrew (2024) Preferences, access, and the STEM gender gap in centralized high school assignment1.00053100%
4Meriem Bai'ou and Michel L. Balinski (2000) Many-to-many matching: stable polyandrous polygamy (or stable marriage of the Gulf States)0.8746367%
5Daniel Montolio and Pere A. Taberner (2021) Gender Differences under Test Pressure and Their Impact on Academic Performance: A Quasi‑Experimental Design0.73732100%
6Barahona, Rodrigo and Dobbin, Frank and Otero, Carlos (2021) An Economic Perspective on Regulatory Capture and Its Implications0.73732100%
7Haeringer, Guillaume and Klijn, Flip (2009) Constrained school choice0.73732100%
8Akyol, Şaziye Pelin and Krishna, Kala (2016) Preferences, Selection, and Value Added: A Structural Approach0.64422100%
9Andreu Arenas and Caterina Calsamiglia (2025) Gender Differences in High‑Stakes Performance and College Admission Policies0.64422100%
10Georgy Artemov and Yeon-Koo Che and YingHua He (2023) Stable Matching with Mistaken Agents0.64422100%

Showing the top 10 of 46 scored citations.