Gregor Steiner, Jeremie Houssineau, Mark F. J. Steel
arXiv 20 Nov 2025 · Statistics — Methodology
arXiv:2511.16029 · PDF · Extracted main text
Instrumental variable regression is a common approach for causal inference in the presence of unobserved confounding. However, identifying valid instruments is often difficult in practice. In this paper, we propose a novel method based on possibility theory that performs posterior inference on the treatment effect, conditional on a user-specified set of potential violations of the exogeneity assumption. Our method can provide informative results even when only a single, potentially invalid, instrument is available, offering a natural and principled framework for sensitivity analysis. Simulation experiments and a real-data application indicate strong performance of the proposed approach.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chernozhukov, V., Hansen, C. B., Kong, L., and Wang, W (2025) Plausible GMM: A Quasi-Bayesian Approach | 0.961 | 9 | 3 | 89% |
| 2 | Penn, J., Gunderson, L. M., Bravo-Hermsdorff, G., Silva, R., and Wat… (2025) BudgetIV: Optimal Partial Identification of Causal Effects with Mostly Invalid Instruments | 0.843 | 4 | 4 | 75% |
| 3 | Martin, R (2025) Possibilistic inferential models: a review | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Kang, H., Zhang, A., Cai, T. T., and Small, D. S (2016) Instrumental Variables Estimation With Some Invalid Instruments and its Application to Mendelian Randomization | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Card, D (1995) Using Geographic Variation in College Proximity to Estimate the Return to Schooling | 0.644 | 4 | 1 | 100% |
| 6 | Martin, R. and Liu, C (2013) Inferential Models: A Framework for Prior-Free Posterior Probabilistic Inference | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Steiner, G. and Steel, M (2025) Bayesian Model Averaging in Causal Instrumental Variable Models self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Windmeijer, F., Liang, X., Hartwig, F. P., and Bowden, J (2021) The Confidence Interval Method for Selecting Valid Instrumental Variables | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Acemoglu, D., Johnson, S., and Robinson, J. A (2001) The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development: An Empirical Investigation | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
| 10 | Chib, S., Shin, M., and Simoni, A (2018) Bayesian Estimation and Comparison of Moment Condition Models | 0.511 | 2 | 1 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 28 scored citations.