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Plausible GMM: A Quasi-Bayesian Approach

Victor Chernozhukov, Christian B. Hansen, Lingwei Kong, Weining Wang

arXiv 1 Jul 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2507.00555 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Structural estimation in economics often makes use of models formulated in terms of moment conditions. While these moment conditions are generally well-motivated, it is often unknown whether the moment restrictions hold exactly. We consider a framework where researchers model their belief about the potential degree of misspecification via a prior distribution and adopt a quasi-Bayesian approach for performing inference on structural parameters. We provide quasi-posterior concentration results, verify that quasi-posteriors can be used to obtain approximately optimal Bayesian decision rules under the maintained prior structure over misspecification, and provide a form of frequentist coverage results. We illustrate the approach through empirical examples where we obtain informative inference for structural objects allowing for substantial relaxations of the requirement that moment conditions hold exactly.

Citation extraction

49
references
162
in-text mentions
49
distinct cited
7
self-citations
16,812
main-text words

appendix boundary found by appendix_titled_section at “Appendix: Proofs” · 37% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Armstrong, Timothy B and Kolesár, Michal (2021) Sensitivity analysis using approximate moment condition models0.95014586%
2Andrews, Isaiah and Mikusheva, Anna (2022) Optimal decision rules for weak GMM0.89718472%
3Chernozhukov, Victor and Hong, Han (2003) An MCMC approach to classical estimation self0.88429969%
4Conley, Timothy G and Hansen, Christian B and Rossi, Peter E (2012) Plausibly exogenous self0.81711755%
5Florens, Jean-Pierre and Simoni, Anna (2021) Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Moment Estimation0.81142100%
6Chen, Xiaohong and Christensen, Timothy M and Tamer, Elie (2018) Monte Carlo confidence sets for identified sets0.7547343%
7Isaiah Andrews and Harvey Barnhard and Jacob Carlson (2024) True and Pseudo-True Parameters0.73732100%
8Gustafson, Paul (2015) Bayesian Inference for Partially Identified Models: Exploring the Limits of Limited Data0.73732100%
9Kim, Jae-Young (2002) Limited information likelihood and Bayesian analysis0.73732100%
10Acemoglu, Daron and Johnson, Simon and Robinson, James A (2001) The colonial origins of comparative development: An empirical investigation0.69361100%

Showing the top 10 of 49 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Possibilistic Instrumental Variable Regression0.96193
2Quasi-Bayesian Hierarchical Models0.40511