Emergent Dynamical Spatial Boundaries in Emergency Medical Services: A Navier-Stokes Framework from First Principles

Tatsuru Kikuchi

arXiv 23 Oct 2025 · Statistics — Applications

arXiv:2510.26810 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Emergency medical services (EMS) response times are critical determinants of patient survival, yet existing approaches to spatial coverage analysis rely on discrete distance buffers or ad-hoc geographic information system (GIS) isochrones without theoretical foundation. This paper derives continuous spatial boundaries for emergency response from first principles using fluid dynamics (Navier-Stokes equations), demonstrating that response effectiveness decays exponentially with time: $τ(t) = τ_0 \exp(-κt)$, where $τ_0$ is baseline effectiveness and $κ$ is the temporal decay rate. Using 10,000 simulated emergency incidents from the National Emergency Medical Services Information System (NEMSIS), I estimate decay parameters and calculate critical boundaries $d^*$ where response effectiveness falls below policy-relevant thresholds. The framework reveals substantial demographic heterogeneity: elderly populations (85+) experience 8.40-minute average response times versus 7.83 minutes for younger adults (18-44), with 33.6% of poor-access incidents affecting elderly populations despite representing 5.2% of the sample. Non-parametric kernel regression validation confirms exponential decay is appropriate (mean squared error 8-12 times smaller than parametric), while traditional difference-in-differences analysis validates treatment effect existence (DiD coefficient = -1.35 minutes, $p < 0.001$). The analysis identifies vulnerable populations--elderly, rural, and low-income communities--facing systematically longer response times, informing optimal EMS station placement and resource allocation to reduce health disparities.

Citation extraction

appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 95% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

Showing the top 10 of 44 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.