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Dynamic Spatial Treatment Effects as Continuous Functionals: Theory and Evidence from Healthcare Access

Tatsuru Kikuchi

arXiv 17 Oct 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2510.15324 · PDF · Extracted main text

Abstract

I develop a continuous functional framework for spatial treatment effects grounded in Navier-Stokes partial differential equations. Rather than discrete treatment parameters, the framework characterizes treatment intensity as continuous functions $τ(\mathbf{x}, t)$ over space-time, enabling rigorous analysis of boundary evolution, spatial gradients, and cumulative exposure. Empirical validation using 32,520 U.S. ZIP codes demonstrates exponential spatial decay for healthcare access ($κ= 0.002837$ per km, $R^2 = 0.0129$) with detectable boundaries at 37.1 km. The framework successfully diagnoses when scope conditions hold: positive decay parameters validate diffusion assumptions near hospitals, while negative parameters correctly signal urban confounding effects. Heterogeneity analysis reveals 2-13 $\times$ stronger distance effects for elderly populations and substantial education gradients. Model selection strongly favors logarithmic decay over exponential ($ΔAIC > 10,000$), representing a middle ground between exponential and power-law decay. Applications span environmental economics, banking, and healthcare policy. The continuous functional framework provides predictive capability ($d^*(t) = ξ^* \sqrt{t}$), parameter sensitivity ($\partial d^*/\partial ν$), and diagnostic tests unavailable in traditional difference-in-differences approaches.

Citation extraction

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Kikuchi, T (2024) Dynamic spatial treatment effect boundaries: A continuous functional framework from Navier-Stokes equations self1.00063100%
2Kikuchi, T (2024) Spatial and temporal boundaries in difference-in-differences: A framework from Navier-Stokes equation self0.84333100%
3Kikuchi, T (2024) Stochastic boundaries in spatial general equilibrium: A diffusion-based approach to causal inference with spillover effects self0.73732100%
4Conley, T. G (1999) GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence0.64422100%
5Kikuchi, T (2024) Nonparametric identification and estimation of spatial treatment effect boundaries: Evidence from 42 million pollution observati… self0.64422100%
6Kikuchi, T (2024) Nonparametric identification of spatial treatment effect boundaries: Evidence from bank branch consolidation self0.64422100%
7Kikuchi, T (2024) A unified framework for spatial and temporal treatment effect boundaries: Theory and identification self0.64422100%
8Allen, T., & Arkolakis, C (2014) Trade and the topography of the spatial economy0.40511100%
9Anselin, L (1988) Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models0.40511100%
10Athey, S., & Imbens, G. W (2017) The econometrics of randomized experiments0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 28 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Emergent Dynamical Spatial Boundaries in Emergency Medical Services: A Navier-Stokes Framework from First Principles1.00083
2Dual-Channel Technology Diffusion: Spatial Decay and Network Contagion in Supply Chain Networks0.87452
3Network Contagion Dynamics in European Banking: A Navier-Stokes Framework for Systemic Risk Assessment0.64422