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Policy-relevant causal effect estimation using instrumental variables with interference

Didier Nibbering, Matthijs Oosterveen

arXiv 16 Sep 2025 · Econometrics

arXiv:2509.12538 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Many policy evaluations using instrumental variable (IV) methods include individuals who interact with each other, potentially violating the standard IV assumptions. This paper defines and partially identifies direct and spillover effects with a clear policy-relevant interpretation under relatively mild assumptions on interference. Our framework accommodates both spillovers from the instrument to treatment and from treatment to outcomes and allows for multiple peers. By generalizing monotone treatment response and selection assumptions, we derive informative bounds on policy-relevant effects without restricting the type or direction of interference. The results extend IV estimation to more realistic social contexts, informing program evaluation and treatment scaling when interference is present.

Citation extraction

12
references
28
in-text mentions
12
distinct cited
0
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7,117
main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Vazquez-Bare, G (2023) Causal spillover effects using instrumental variables0.92843100%
2Imbens, G. W. and J. D. Angrist (1994) Identification and estimation of local average treatment effects0.84333100%
3Imai, K., Z. Jiang, and A. Malani (2021) Causal inference with interference and noncompliance in two-stage randomized experiments0.81142100%
4Kang, H. and G. Imbens (2016) Peer encouragement designs in causal inference with partial interference and identification of local average network effects0.81142100%
5DiTraglia, F. J., C. Garcá-Jimeno, R. O’Keeffe-O’Donovan, and A. Sán… (2023) Identifying causal effects in experiments with spillovers and non-compliance0.73732100%
6Hoshino, T. and T. Yanagi (2024) Causal inference with noncompliance and unknown interference0.73732100%
7Kormos, M., R. P. Lieli, and M. Huber (2025) Interacting treatments with endogenous takeup0.64422100%
8Acerenza, S., J. Martinez-Iriarte, A. Sánchez-Becerra, and P. E. Spini (2025) Bounds for within-household encouragement designs with interference0.40511100%
9Borusyak, K. and P. Hull (2023) Nonrandom exposure to exogenous shocks0.40511100%
10Manski, C. F (1997) Monotone treatment response0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 12 scored citations.