arXiv 15 May 2025 · Econometrics
arXiv:2505.10370 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
For many economic questions, the empirical results are not interesting unless they are strong. For these questions, theorizing before the results are known is not always optimal. Instead, the optimal sequencing of theory and empirics trades off a “Darwinian Learning” effect from theorizing first with a “Statistical Learning” effect from examining the data first. This short paper formalizes the tradeoff in a Bayesian model. In the modern era of mature economic theory and enormous datasets, I argue that post hoc theorizing is typically optimal.
appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 92% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.
The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maher, Patrick (1988) Prediction, accommodation, and the logic of discovery | 1.000 | 6 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Kahn, James A, Landsburg, Steven E, Stockman, Alan C (1996) The positive economics of methodology | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Kerr, Norbert L (1998) HARKing: Hypothesizing after the results are known | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Maher, Patrick (1990) How prediction enhances confirmation | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Abadie, Alberto (2020) Statistical nonsignificance in empirical economics | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Andrews, Isaiah, Kasy, Maximilian (2019) Identification of and correction for publication bias | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Barnes, Eric (1996) Discussion: Thoughts on Maher's predictivism | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Chen, Andrew Y, Zimmermann, Tom (2020) Publication bias and the cross-section of stock returns self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Chen, Andrew Y, Zimmermann, Tom (2022) Publication Bias in Asset Pricing Research self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Efron, Brad (2001) [statistical modeling: The two cultures]: Comment | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 40 scored citations.