arXiv 25 Feb 2025 · Econometrics
arXiv:2502.17830 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Hypothesis tests and confidence intervals are ubiquitous in empirical research, yet their connection to subsequent decision-making is often unclear. We develop a theory of certified decisions that pairs recommended decisions with inferential guarantees. Specifically, we attach P-certificates -- upper bounds on loss that hold with probability at least $1-\alpha$ -- to recommended actions. We show that such certificates allow "safe," risk-controlling adoption decisions for ambiguity-averse downstream decision-makers. We further prove that it is without loss to limit attention to P-certificates arising as minimax decisions over confidence sets, or what Manski (2021) terms "as-if decisions with a set estimate." A parallel argument applies to E-certified decisions obtained from e-values in settings with unbounded loss.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grünwald, P. D (2023) The e-posterior | 0.928 | 5 | 3 | 80% |
| 2 | Andrews, I., Kitagawa, T. and McCloskey, A (2024) Inference on winners self | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
| 3 | Kiyani, S., Pappas, G., Roth, A. and Hassani, H (2025) Decision theoretic foundations for conformal prediction: Optimal uncertainty quantification for risk-averse agents | 0.874 | 5 | 2 | 100% |
| 4 | Chernozhukov, V., Lee, S., Rosen, A. M. and Sun, L (2025) Policy learning with confidence | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Manski, C. F (2021) Econometrics for decision making: Building foundations sketched by haavelmo and wald | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | Benjamini, Y., Hechtlinger, Y. and Stark, P. B (2019) Confidence intervals for selected parameters | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Kitagawa, T. and Tetenov, A (2018) Who should be treated? empirical welfare maximization methods for treatment choice | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Ramdas, A. and Wang, R (2024) Hypothesis testing with e-values | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | –- and –- (2024) b) | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Zrnic, T. and Fithian, W (2024) a) | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
Showing the top 10 of 21 scored citations.