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Large Volatility Matrix Prediction using Tensor Factor Structure

Sung Hoon Choi, Donggyu Kim

arXiv 5 Dec 2024 · Econometrics

arXiv:2412.04293 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

Several approaches for predicting large volatility matrices have been developed based on high-dimensional factor-based It\^o processes. These methods often impose restrictions to reduce the model complexity, such as constant eigenvectors or factor loadings over time. However, several studies indicate that eigenvector processes are also time-varying. To address this feature, this paper generalizes the factor structure by representing the integrated volatility matrix process as a cubic (order-3 tensor) form, which is decomposed into low-rank tensor and idiosyncratic tensor components. To predict conditional expected large volatility matrices, we propose the Projected Tensor Principal Orthogonal componEnt Thresholding (PT-POET) procedure and establish its asymptotic properties. The advantages of PT-POET are validated through a simulation study and demonstrated in an application to minimum variance portfolio allocation using high-frequency trading data.

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56
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110
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57
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Shin, M., D. Kim, Y. Wang, and J. Fan (2021) Factor and idiosyncratic VAR-Itô volatility models for heavy-tailed high-frequency financial data1.00065100%
2Ait-Sahalia, Y. and D. Xiu (2017) Using principal component analysis to estimate a high dimensional factor model with high-frequency data1.00064100%
3Kim, D. and J. Fan (2019) Factor GARCH-Itô models for high-frequency data with application to large volatility matrix prediction self1.00064100%
4Fan, J., Y. Liao, and M. Mincheva (2013) Large covariance estimation by thresholding principal orthogonal complements1.00054100%
5Jacod, J., Y. Li, P. A. Mykland, M. Podolskij, and M. Vetter (2009) Microstructure noise in the continuous case: the pre-averaging approach0.92843100%
6Fan, J., Y. Liao, and W. Wang (2016) b): Projected principal component analysis in factor models0.87452100%
7Christensen, K., S. Kinnebrock, and M. Podolskij (2010) Pre-averaging estimators of the ex-post covariance matrix in noisy diffusion models with non-synchronous data0.84333100%
8Corsi, F (2009) A simple approximate long-memory model of realized volatility0.81142100%
9Aẗ-Sahalia, Y. and D. Xiu (2016) Increased correlation among asset classes: Are volatility or jumps to blame, or both?0.73732100%
10Chen, E. Y., D. Xia, C. Cai, and J. Fan (2024) Semi-parametric tensor factor analysis by iteratively projected singular value decomposition0.73732100%

Showing the top 10 of 57 scored citations.