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Valuing an Engagement Surface using a Large Scale Dynamic Causal Model

Abhimanyu Mukerji, Sushant More, Ashwin Viswanathan Kannan, Lakshmi Ravi, Hua Chen, Naman Kohli, Chris Khawand, Dinesh Mandalapu

arXiv 21 Aug 2024 · Machine Learning

arXiv:2408.11967 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

With recent rapid growth in online shopping, AI-powered Engagement Surfaces (ES) have become ubiquitous across retail services. These engagement surfaces perform an increasing range of functions, including recommending new products for purchase, reminding customers of their orders and providing delivery notifications. Understanding the causal effect of engagement surfaces on value driven for customers and businesses remains an open scientific question. In this paper, we develop a dynamic causal model at scale to disentangle value attributable to an ES, and to assess its effectiveness. We demonstrate the application of this model to inform business decision-making by understanding returns on investment in the ES, and identifying product lines and features where the ES adds the most value.

Citation extraction

22
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1More, S., Kotwal, P., Chappidi, S., Mandalapu, D., Khawand, C (2023) Double Machine Learning at Scale to Predict Causal Impact of Customer Actions self0.51121100%
2Young, Scott W. H (2014) "Improving Library User Experience with A/B Testing: Principles and Process"0.40511100%
3AWSlambda https://aws.amazon.com/lambda/aws.amazon.com/lambda/0.40511100%
4Chen, H., Harinen, T., Lee, J. Y., Yung, M., and Zhao, Z (2020) CausalML: Python package for causal machine learning self0.40511100%
5Syrgkanis, V., Lewis, G., Oprescu, M., Hei, M., Battocchi, K., Dillo… (2021) Causal inference and machine learning in practice with EconML and CausalML: Industrial use cases at Microsoft, TripAdvisor, Uber self0.40511100%
6Hartford, J., Lewis, G., Leyton-Brown, K., and Taddy, M (2017) Deep IV: A flexible approach for counterfactual prediction0.40511100%
7Athey, S., and Wager, S (2021) Policy learning with observational data0.40511100%
8Sekhon, Jasjeet (2007) The Neyman–Rubin Model of Causal Inference and Estimation via Matching Methods0.40511100%
9Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales Report, U.S. Census Bureau0.40511100%
10Sharma, A. and Kiciman, E (2020) DoWhy: An end-to-end library for causal inference0.40511100%

Showing the top 10 of 22 scored citations.