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When can weak latent factors be statistically inferred?

Jianqing Fan, Yuling Yan, Yuheng Zheng

arXiv 4 Jul 2024 · Statistics — Methodology · 5 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2407.03616 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This article establishes a new and comprehensive estimation and inference theory for principal component analysis (PCA) under the weak factor model that allow for cross-sectional dependent idiosyncratic components under the nearly minimal factor strength relative to the noise level or signal-to-noise ratio. Our theory is applicable regardless of the relative growth rate between the cross-sectional dimension $N$ and temporal dimension $T$. This more realistic assumption and noticeable result require completely new technical device, as the commonly-used leave-one-out trick is no longer applicable to the case with cross-sectional dependence. Another notable advancement of our theory is on PCA inference $ - $ for example, under the regime where $N\asymp T$, we show that the asymptotic normality for the PCA-based estimator holds as long as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) grows faster than a polynomial rate of $\log N$. This finding significantly surpasses prior work that required a polynomial rate of $N$. Our theory is entirely non-asymptotic, offering finite-sample characterizations for both the estimation error and the uncertainty level of statistical inference. A notable technical innovation is our closed-form first-order approximation of PCA-based estimator, which paves the way for various statistical tests. Furthermore, we apply our theories to design easy-to-implement statistics for validating whether given factors fall in the linear spans of unknown latent factors, testing structural breaks in the factor loadings for an individual unit, checking whether two units have the same risk exposures, and constructing confidence intervals for systematic risks. Our empirical studies uncover insightful correlations between our test results and economic cycles.

Citation extraction

65
references
202
in-text mentions
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distinct cited
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self-citations
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main-text words

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Bai, J. and Ng, S (2023) Approximate factor models with weaker loadings1.000206100%
2Choi, J. and Yuan, M (2024) High dimensional factor analysis with weak factors1.000155100%
3Jiang, P., Uematsu, Y., and Yamagata, T (2023) Revisiting asymptotic theory for principal component estimators of approximate factor models1.000155100%
4Fan, J., Liao, Y., and Mincheva, M (2013) Large covariance estimation by thresholding principal orthogonal complements self1.00064100%
5Onatski, A (2012) Asymptotics of the principal components estimator of large factor models with weakly influential factors1.00063100%
6Bai, J (2003) Inferential theory for factor models of large dimensions1.00053100%
7Yan, Y., Chen, Y., and Fan, J (2024) Inference for heteroskedastic pca with missing data self0.96510490%
8Breitung, J. and Eickmeier, S (2011) Testing for structural breaks in dynamic factor models0.87462100%
9Bai, J. and Ng, S (2002) Determining the number of factors in approximate factor models0.87452100%
10Onatski, A (2010) Determining the number of factors from empirical distribution of eigenvalues0.84333100%

Showing the top 10 of 65 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Large-dimensional Factor Analysis with Weighted PCA0.96194
2Universal Factor Models0.73732
3Taxonomy and Estimation of Multiple Breakpoints in High-Dimensional Factor Models0.51121
4The Canonical Decomposition of Factor Models: Weak Factors are Everywhere0.40511
5The Dynamic, the Static, and the Weak factor models and the analysis of high-dimensional time series0.40511