Tony Chernis, Gary Koop, Emily Tallman, Mike West
arXiv 5 Jun 2024 · Statistics — Methodology
arXiv:2406.03321 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
The macroeconomy is a sophisticated dynamic system involving significant uncertainties that complicate modelling. In response, decision-makers consider multiple models that provide different predictions and policy recommendations which are then synthesized into a policy decision. In this setting, we develop Bayesian predictive decision synthesis (BPDS) to formalize monetary policy decision processes. BPDS draws on recent developments in model combination and statistical decision theory that yield new opportunities in combining multiple models, emphasizing the integration of decision goals, expectations and outcomes into the model synthesis process. Our case study concerns central bank policy decisions about target interest rates with a focus on implications for multi-step macroeconomic forecasting. This application also motivates new methodological developments in conditional forecasting and BPDS, presented and developed here.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tallman, E. and M. West (2023) Bayesian predictive decision synthesis self | 0.950 | 7 | 5 | 86% |
| 2 | Lavine, I., M. Lindon, and M. West (2021) Adaptive variable selection for sequential prediction in multivariate dynamic models | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Loaiza-Maya, R., G. M. Martin, and D. T. Frazier (2021) Focused Bayesian prediction | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Johnson, M. C. and M. West (2025) Bayesian predictive synthesis with outcome-dependent pools | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 5 | Leeper, E. M. and T. Zha (2003) Modest policy interventions | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 6 | McAlinn, K. and M. West (2019) Dynamic Bayesian predictive synthesis in time series forecasting | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Tallman, E. and M. West (2022) On entropic tilting and predictive conditioning self | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Furlanetto, F., F. Ravazzolo, and S. Sarferaz (2019) Identification of financial factors in economic fluctuations | 0.585 | 3 | 1 | 100% |
| 9 | West, M. and P. J. Harrison (1997) Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models\/ (2 ed.) self | 0.511 | 3 | 2 | 33% |
| 10 | Chan, J. C., D. Pettenuzzo, A. Poon, and D. Zhu (2025) Conditional forecasts in large bayesian vars with multiple equality and inequality constraints | 0.511 | 3 | 2 | 33% |
Showing the top 10 of 31 scored citations.
arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.
| Citing paper | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2505.05193 | 0.843 | 3 | 3 |
| 2 | Predictive Synthesis under Sporadic Participation: Evidence from Inflation Density Surveys | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 2606.16708 | 0.405 | 1 | 1 |