Tobias Adrian, Domenico Giannone, Matteo Luciani, Mike West
arXiv 15 Jun 2026 · Econometrics
arXiv:2606.16708 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text
Central banks monitor macroeconomic risk through two traditions: scenario analysis, regularly used since the mid-1990s, and distributional forecasting, practiced since the late 1960s. The two are complementary but separate: scenarios provide narratives without probabilities, while predictive distributions provide probabilities with limited economic interpretation. Treating baseline forecasts and scenarios as conditional predictive densities, and distributional forecasts as reference predictive distributions, places both within a common framework and clarifies their roles. The Scenario Synthesis assigns weights to scenarios consistent with the reference distribution, offering a practical and reproducible tool for risk assessment and policy deliberation under deep uncertainty.
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The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.
| Reference | Intensity | Mentions | Sections | Main text | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adrian, Tobias and Giannone, Domenico and Luciani, Matteo and West,… (2025) Scenario Synthesis and Macroeconomic Risk self | 1.000 | 5 | 3 | 100% |
| 2 | Tobias Adrian and Nina Boyarchenko and Domenico Giannone Vulnerable growth self | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 3 | Gertler, Mark L. and Karadi, Peter (2011) A Model of Unconventional Monetary Policy | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 4 | Bernanke, Ben S (2024) Forecasting for Monetary Policy Making and Communication at the Bank of England: A Review | 0.928 | 4 | 3 | 100% |
| 5 | Crump, Richard K. and Eusepi, Stefano and Giannone, Domenico and Qia… (2025) A large Bayesian VAR of the United States economy self | 0.843 | 3 | 3 | 100% |
| 6 | Garga, Vaishali and Herbst, Edward and McKay, Alisdair and Nicolò, G… (2025) Monetary Policy, Uncertainty, and Communications | 0.737 | 3 | 2 | 100% |
| 7 | Azzalini, Adelchi and Capitanio, Antonella (2003) Distributions generated by perturbation of symmetry with emphasis on a multivariate skew t-distribution | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 8 | Bauer, Michael and Berge, Travis and Fiori, Giuseppe and Loria, Fran… (2025) Accounting for Uncertainty and Risks in Monetary Policy | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 9 | Federal Reserve Board (2018) Report to the FOMC on Economic Conditions and Monetary Policy. Book A– Economic and Financial Conditions: Outlook, Risks, and Po… | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
| 10 | Herbst, Edward and Konzem, Scott and Scofield, C (2026) Alternative Scenarios at the Federal Reserve from 1968 to 2020: Data, Interpretation, and Evaluation | 0.644 | 2 | 2 | 100% |
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