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Simultaneous Inference for Local Structural Parameters with Random Forests

David M. Ritzwoller, Vasilis Syrgkanis

arXiv 13 May 2024 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2405.07860 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We construct simultaneous confidence intervals for solutions to conditional moment equations. The intervals are built around a class of nonparametric regression algorithms based on subsampled kernels. This class encompasses various forms of subsampled random forest regression, including Generalized Random Forests (Athey et al., 2019). Although simultaneous validity is often desirable in practice -- for example, for fine-grained characterization of treatment effect heterogeneity -- only confidence intervals that confer pointwise guarantees were previously available. Our work closes this gap. As a by-product, we obtain several new order-explicit results on the concentration and normal approximation of high-dimensional U-statistics.

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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Banerjee, A., Duflo, E., Goldberg, N., Karlan, D., Osei, R., Parient… (2015) A multifaceted program causes lasting progress for the very poor: Evidence from six countries1.000335100%
2Song, Y., Chen, X., and Kato, K (2019) Approximating high-dimensional infinite-order $u$-statistics: Statistical and computational guarantees1.000175100%
3Wager, S. and Athey, S (2018) Estimation and inference of heterogeneous treatment effects using random forests1.000105100%
4Chernozhukov, V., Chetverikov, D., Demirer, M., Duflo, E., Hansen, C… (2018) Double/debiased machine learning for treatment and structural parameters: Double/debiased machine learning1.000103100%
5Minsker, S (2023) U-statistics of growing order and sub-gaussian mean estimators with sharp constants1.00094100%
6Oprescu, M., Syrgkanis, V., and Wu, Z. S (2019) Orthogonal random forest for causal inference self1.00094100%
7Athey, S., Tibshirani, J., and Wager, S (2019) Generalized random forests1.00084100%
8Chernozhukov, V., Chetverikov, D., Kato, K., and Koike, Y (2022) Improved central limit theorem and bootstrap approximations in high dimensions1.00073100%
9Chen, Q., Syrgkanis, V., and Austern, M (2022) Debiased machine learning without sample-splitting for stable estimators self1.00063100%
10De la Pena, V. and Giné, E (1999) Decoupling: from dependence to independence1.00053100%

Showing the top 10 of 85 scored citations.