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Orthogonal Random Forest for Causal Inference

Miruna Oprescu, Vasilis Syrgkanis, Zhiwei Steven Wu

arXiv 9 Jun 2018 · Machine Learning · 31 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:1806.03467 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We propose the orthogonal random forest, an algorithm that combines Neyman-orthogonality to reduce sensitivity with respect to estimation error of nuisance parameters with generalized random forests (Athey et al., 2017)--a flexible non-parametric method for statistical estimation of conditional moment models using random forests. We provide a consistency rate and establish asymptotic normality for our estimator. We show that under mild assumptions on the consistency rate of the nuisance estimator, we can achieve the same error rate as an oracle with a priori knowledge of these nuisance parameters. We show that when the nuisance functions have a locally sparse parametrization, then a local $\ell_1$-penalized regression achieves the required rate. We apply our method to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data with discrete treatments or continuous treatments, and we show that, unlike prior work, our method provably allows to control for a high-dimensional set of variables under standard sparsity conditions. We also provide a comprehensive empirical evaluation of our algorithm on both synthetic and real data.

Citation extraction

29
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Athey, S., Tibshirani, J., and Wager, S (2017) Generalized Random Forests1.000104100%
2Chernozhukov, V., Chetverikov, D., Demirer, M., Duflo, E., Hansen, C… (2017) Double/debiased/neyman machine learning of treatment effects0.92844100%
3Wager, S. and Athey, S (2015) Estimation and Inference of Heterogeneous Treatment Effects using Random Forests0.8749367%
4Chernozhukov, V., Goldman, M., Semenova, V., and Taddy, M (2017) Orthogonal Machine Learning for Demand Estimation: High Dimensional Causal Inference in Dynamic Panels0.87452100%
5Tibshirani, J., Athey, S., Wager, S., Friedberg, R., Miner, L., and… (2018) grf: Generalized Random Forests (Beta), 20180.81142100%
6Chernozhukov, V., Escanciano, J. C., Ichimura, H., Newey, W. K., and… Locally Robust Semiparametric Estimation0.58531100%
7Hoeffding, W (1963) Probability inequalities for sums of bounded random variables0.5112250%
8Chernozhukov, V., Nekipelov, D., Semenova, V., and Syrgkanis, V (1806) Plug-in Regularized Estimation of High-Dimensional Parameters in Nonlinear Semiparametric Models self0.51121100%
9Nie, X. and Wager, S (2017) Learning Objectives for Treatment Effect Estimation0.51121100%
10Robinson, P. M (1988) Root-n-consistent semiparametric regression0.51121100%

Showing the top 10 of 29 scored citations.

Cited by, within the corpus

arXiv econ.EM papers that cite this one, ranked by how heavily they lean on it.

Citing paperIntensityMentionsSections
1Simultaneous Inference for Local Structural Parameters with Random Forests$^*$1.00094
2Automatic Doubly Robust Forests0.944198
3Orthogonal Statistical Learning0.81142
4Stable Probability Weighting Large-Sample and Finite-Sample Estimation and Inference Methods for Heterogeneous Causal Effects of Multivalued Treatments Under Limited Overlap0.73732
5Finding Subgroups with Significant Treatment Effects0.64422
62310.169450.64422
7Minimax Kernel Machine Learning for a Class of Doubly Robust Functionals with Application to Proximal Causal Inference0.40521
8Regularized Orthogonal Machine Learning for Nonlinear Semiparametric Models0.40511
9Kernel Conditional Moment Test via Maximum Moment Restriction0.40511
10Double Debiased Machine Learning Nonparametric Inference with Continuous Treatments0.40511