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Was Javert right to be suspicious? Marginal Treatment Effects with Duration Outcomes

Santiago Acerenza, Vitor Possebom, Pedro H. C. Sant'Anna

arXiv 23 Nov 2023 · Econometrics · 1 citations (OpenAlex)

arXiv:2311.13969 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

We identify the distributional and quantile marginal treatment effect functions when the outcome is right-censored. Our method requires a conditionally exogenous instrument and random censoring. We propose asymptotically consistent semi-parametric estimators and valid inferential procedures for the target functions. To illustrate, we evaluate the effect of alternative sentences (fines and community service vs. no punishment) on recidivism in Brazil. Our results highlight substantial treatment effect heterogeneity: we find that people whom most judges would punish take longer to recidivate, while people who would be punished only by strict judges recidivate at an earlier date than if they were not punished.

Citation extraction

61
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appendix boundary found by appendix_command · 27% of the source is main text. Read the extracted text to check this.

Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Carneiro and Lee (2009) Estimating distributions of potential outcomes using local instrumental variables with an application to changes in college enro…1.00075100%
2Heckman, Urzua and Vytlacil (2006) Understanding Instrumental Variables in Models with Essential Heterogeneity0.9619589%
3Giles (2023) The Government Revenue, Recidivism, and Financial Health Effects of Criminal Fines and Fees0.9416483%
4Delgado, Garcia-Suaza and Sant'Anna (2022) Distribution Regression in Duration Analysis:an Application to Unemployment Spells self0.9285480%
5Huttunen, Kaila and Nix (2020) The Punishment Ladder: Estimating the Impact of Different Punishments on Defendant Outcomes0.9098575%
6Frandsen (2015) Treatment Effects with Censoring and Endogeneity0.89911473%
7Agan, Doleac and Harvey (2023) Misdemeanor Prosecution0.8947571%
8Possebom (2023) Crime and Mismeasured Punishment: Marginal Treatment Effect with Misclassification self0.88810670%
9Lieberman, Luh and Mueller-Smith (2023) Criminal Court Fees, Earnings and Expenditures: A Multi-State RD Analysis of Survey and Administrative Data0.87452100%
10Bhuller, Dahl, Loken and Mogstad (2020) Incaceration, Recidivism, and Employment0.8307657%

Showing the top 10 of 62 scored citations.