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Structural Econometric Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for Covid-19 Across U.S. States and Selected Countries

Ida Johnsson, M. Hashem Pesaran, Cynthia Fan Yang

arXiv 9 Sep 2023 · Econometrics

arXiv:2309.08619 · PDF · DOI · OpenAlex · Extracted main text

Abstract

This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$) of Covid-19. This approach identifies $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of mitigating factors on disease diffusion and is easy to implement. We apply the method to data from 48 contiguous U.S. states and a diverse set of countries. Our results reveal a notable concentration of $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ estimates with an average value of 4.5. Through a counterfactual analysis, we highlight a significant underestimation of the $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ when mitigating factors are not appropriately accounted for.

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32
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58
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distinct cited
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Most heavily cited references

The works this paper leans on most, across its whole bibliography — not restricted to papers in our corpus. Ranked by composite intensity, which combines how often a work is mentioned, how many sections mention it, and how much of that falls in the main text rather than the appendix.

ReferenceIntensityMentionsSectionsMain text
1Pesaran, M. H. and C. F. Yang (2022) Matching theory and evidence on Covid-19 using a stochastic network SIR model self0.87452100%
2Chudik, A., M. H. Pesaran, and A. Rebucci (2022) Social distancing, vaccination and evolution of COVID-19 transmission rates in Europe self0.81142100%
3Katul, G. G., A. Mrad, S. Bonetti, G. Manoli, and A. J. Parolari (2020) Global convergence of COVID-19 basic reproduction number and estimation from early-time SIR dynamics0.81142100%
4Fernández-Villaverde, J. and C. I. Jones (2022) Estimating and simulating a SIRD model of COVID-19 for many countries, states, and cities0.73732100%
5Ke, R., E. Romero-Severson, S. Sanche, and N. Hengartner (2021) Estimating the reproductive number R0 of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States and eight European countries and implications for vacci…0.73732100%
6Korolev, I (2021) Identification and estimation of the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-190.73732100%
7Alimohamadi, Y., M. Taghdir, and M. Sepandi (2020) Estimate of the basic reproduction number for COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis0.51121100%
8Arias, J. E., J. Fernández-Villaverde, J. F. Rubio-Ramŕez, and M. Shin (2023) The causal effects of lockdown policies on health and macroeconomic outcomes0.51121100%
9Buckman, S. R., R. Glick, K. J. Lansing, N. Petrosky-Nadeau, and L.… (2020) Replicating and projecting the path of COVID-19 with a model-implied reproduction number0.51121100%
10Li, Q., X. Guan, P. Wu, X. Wang, L. Zhou, Y. Tong, et al (2020) Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of novel coronavirusinfected pneumonia0.51121100%

Showing the top 10 of 32 scored citations.